078
FXUS64 KLZK 100544
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1244 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Unpleasant conditions remain in place at the sfc across much of
the state ahead of an approaching cold front. Perspectives remain
vastly different this afternoon as clouds and rain have held
temperatures in the 60s/70s F across northern AR while central and
souther AR have seen temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s F with Td
values in the 70s F. (But we`re not bitter...)

These conditions will help influence how things unfold into the
evening hours as the cold front is expected to sag south while a
H500 shortwave moves across the area in the NW flow. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop from north-central
to central AR by 20z-22z and begin to move S/SE. Afternoon
mesoanalysis indicates between 2000-4000 J/kg of available SBCAPE
along with 30-40 kts of shear are available. This should be more
than adequate in allowing at least a few storms to become severe.
Main corridor of large hail/damaging wind threat remains within
the SPC slight risk area through a few hours after sunset.

By Monday morning the cold front should have progressed south of
the area with precip coming to an end as sfc ridging builds in.
Other than dry conditions, this should help things feel more
pleasant outside for a day or two.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Calm and dry conditions are expected through the period under high
pressure. Winds are expected to remain mostly light and variable
through much of the period. Some high clouds will be likely early in
the period before mostly clear skies prevail late in the week.

Temperatures are expected to be average to slightly above average
through the period. High temperatures will rise into the mid 80s to
mid 90s with overnight temperatures dropping into the lower 60s to
lower 70s. The coolest temperatures will be early in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Lingering cloud cover acrs central and south AR wl result in a
combo of MVFR/low end VFR ceilings thru the early mrng hrs. A few
showers wl also be possible. Drier air wl cont to sloly advect
into the FA, with clouds sloly decreasing later this mrng, with
VFR conds expected thru the rest of the fcst PD.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...44