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000
FXUS64 KLZK 152341 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
641 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

It was noticeably more humid acrs AR this aftn thanks to mainly south
winds. Mid aftn sfc dewpoints had risen into the 60s statewide, with
temps in the upper 60s to the mid 70s. A few showers were working
into the southwest part of the FA, assocd with a weak upper impulse.

The aforementioned upper impulse wl traverse the area early tngt,
bringing small chcs of rainfall. Convective chcs wl incrs over NW AR
later tngt as activity works into the state fm OK. The potential for
organized svr storms appears limited durg the overnight and into the
early mrng hrs on Tue.

Regarding the potential for svr wx on Tue, CAM solutions cont to
show a higher sheared/fairly unstable environment ahead of an apchg
CDFNT to our west. With a contd northerly track of the storm sys, it
still looks like the greater potential for organized svr storms wl
stay north of AR. Still could see a broken line of convection along
and ahead of the CDFNT, although there is still a lot of
uncertainty regarding areal coverage and resulting QPF values.

The front is progged to stall out acrs the area on Wed. Due to ltl
if any forcing, wl cont with a dry fcst for now, but would not be
surprised to see some diurnal convection form Wed aftn. It wl be
quite warm Wed aftn with highs well into the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Nearly zonal flow to start the forecast period which will provide an
axis for of unsettled weather as a warm front attempts to lift back
to the north. Although long term models are not in agreement with
the intricate details this far out, the overall weather pattern
remains unsettled and unchanged from the previous cycle with 30-50%
POPS Weds through Sat. Introduced a dry period by early next week as
an upper ridge begins to build over the SW CONUS. Temps will
generally be on the mild side with 80s for highs and 50s/60s for
lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

BKN to OVC mid-lvl cloud cover wl cont to move in acrs the FA
tonight, w/ modest Srly winds prevailing overnight. Some VCSH wl
be possible overnight as well, and based on recent radar imgry,
some -RA may be seen at Cntrl terminals, but category impacts are
not anticipated w/ this precip. By 10-12Z Tues mrng, MVFR CIGS wl
bcm more widespread at most terminals, w/ VCSH persisting towards
the aftn hrs. Confidence on TS near terminal areas remains low,
but have kept mentions of PROB30 groups for more prominent precip
later on Tues. Otherwise, gusty Srly winds wl cont thru the PD.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  78  67  86 /  30  70  50   0
Camden AR         64  81  67  84 /  20  50  30   0
Harrison AR       64  76  60  82 /  50  60  10   0
Hot Springs AR    64  76  66  85 /  30  70  40   0
Little Rock   AR  67  81  69  87 /  20  70  50   0
Monticello AR     67  82  69  84 /  10  30  40   0
Mount Ida AR      63  75  65  86 /  30  70  30   0
Mountain Home AR  64  77  63  83 /  40  70  10   0
Newport AR        67  79  68  85 /  20  70  60   0
Pine Bluff AR     65  81  68  84 /  20  50  50  10
Russellville AR   64  77  65  86 /  30  70  20   0
Searcy AR         64  79  66  85 /  20  70  50   0
Stuttgart AR      67  81  69  84 /  10  50  50  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...72