663
ACUS11 KWNS 061659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061658
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-061830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1180
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern New York into eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061658Z - 061830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon across portions of the Hudson Valley
into the Mid Atlantic. 40-55 mph wind gusts are the main threat with
the stronger storms. 60+ mph gusts will likely be more isolated, so
a WW issuance is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Efficient diurnal heating is supporting the breach of
convective temperatures (i.e. upper 70s/low 80s F) across portions
of the Mid Atlantic, as a 500 mb vort max also approaches the Hudson
Valley. MRMS mosaic radar data suggests that convective initiation
appears underway across portions of central NY into central and
eastern PA. These storms are developing amid a moist and heated
low-level airmass, but with poor (5.5-6 C/km) tropospheric lapse
rates. As such, the rate of increasing thunderstorm intensity will
be strongly dependent on continued surface heating and further
steepening of boundary layer lapse rates through the afternoon.
Multicellular to perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are
expected, as modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow atop weaker
low-level winds will support small low-level hodographs, but with
some mid-level elongation. Strong wind gusts in the 45-55 mph range
(capable of localized damage) are expected with the stronger storms.
However, the overall severe threat appears to be more isolated, so a
WW issuance is not currently expected.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   40217445 39987471 39857503 39797548 39857599 39957632
            40147658 41137620 42897605 43997584 43977523 43477439
            42447393 41237414 40217445