Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 112156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112156
MNZ000-NDZ000-120030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Areas affected...portions of far northern North Dakota into far
northern Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 112156Z - 120030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts could occur with the stronger
storm cores. The overall severe threat should remain isolated
though, and a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...High-based/low-topped convection continues to meander
along the International border, and is poised to overspread portions
of far northern ND and MN over the next few hours. Very steep
tropospheric lapse rates precede these storms, which support
adequate evaporative cooling and associated downward momentum
transport. As such, the stronger shower/thunderstorm cores could
produce a few damaging gusts (including those approaching severe
thresholds), even if only virga is present. Still, the overall
severe threat should be isolated at best, so a WW issuance is not
anticipated.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/11/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 47419497 47229698 47580003 47630050 48080211 48920360
49339712 48969445 48529422 47989470 47419497