318
FXUS62 KMFL 061139
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
739 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Models depict a deepening trough across the E CONUS, with an
embedded impulse of energy/shortwave pushing into the Florida
peninsula today. Latest CAM/NBM and ensemble solutions insist in
bringing this feature all the way down to SoFlo by this afternoon,
which should be enhancing overall instability, and moderately
increasing lapse rates and mid level moisture.

The above synoptic scenario will combine with afternoon sea breeze
circulations for shower and thunderstorm activity to develop. POP/Wx
coverage will become scattered to numerous with 50-70% across
interior and northern areas. Also, the steeper lapse rates and
enhanced lifting with sea breezes and/or outflow boundaries may be
enough for some cells to become strong or severe. Best overall
chances remain over the northern half of SoFlo, but a strong
thunderstorm could develop anywhere in the CWA today. Main hazards
accompanying any storm that forms will be damaging gusty winds,
frequent lightning, large hail and heavy rain.

For Friday, the aforementioned deep trough continues migrating
eastward, while an associated sfc frontal boundary pushes southward
across the SE CONUS. This will begin veering winds across SoFlo to
the S/SW and advect warmer air from the south. This will help in
keeping the current trend of abnormally warm temperatures, with
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices will likewise
climb into the mid 100s for most areas, but isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms could provide some relief wherever they
form.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Over the weekend, the mid-level trough will advect eastward through
the Florida Peninsula. An attendant surface frontal boundary will
drift across the southeast US before stalling out, causing winds to
shift to a west-southwest regime for the weekend, although winds
will be generally light as a whole. The daily sea breezes and
forcing for ascent from the trough will provide necessary energy
for daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop. PoPs will be around 50-60% for most locations this
weekend and convection should trend more towards the east coast
compared to the west coast under light west-southwest flow. High
temperatures could reach the mid to upper 90s each day, with areas
in the interior potentially topping out in the triple digits.
Heat indices will likewise climb into the mid 100s for most areas
under southwest flow, and thus there will be potential for heat
advisories.

For early next week, guidance starts to vary more drastically.
Overall, most guidance is hinting at the potential for a tropical
disturbance to form in the Caribbean which would have the potential
to impact the region at some point. However, with it being near the
end of the forecast period, uncertainty is very high. Some solutions
highlight potential for the disturbance to impact parts of South
Florida while others show no impactful weather. Therefore, this
potential system needs to be taken with a grain of salt for now, but
if it continues to show signs of materializing in future guidance
and has a chance to pose threats to South Florida, then potential
impacts will be described.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR continues at all terminals through around 15Z, then showers
and/or thunderstorms may bring brief periods of sub-VFR cigs/vis.
SE winds increase to around 10kt this afternoon, then light and
variable later in the evening. Only exception will be APF where a
westerly flow develops with afternoon Gulf breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Generally benign boating conditions should prevail across the
coastal waters through the weekend, with winds in the 5-10kt range.
Only exception will be in the vicinity of any thunderstorm that
forms, which will bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.
Seas will remain in the 2 to 3 feet range in the Atlantic waters,
and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  79  92  79 /  40  30  50  50
West Kendall     93  75  93  75 /  40  30  50  50
Opa-Locka        93  78  93  78 /  40  30  60  40
Homestead        92  77  91  77 /  30  20  50  50
Fort Lauderdale  91  80  91  78 /  30  30  60  50
N Ft Lauderdale  91  79  93  78 /  30  20  60  40
Pembroke Pines   96  79  95  78 /  30  30  60  40
West Palm Beach  93  77  94  76 /  30  20  60  40
Boca Raton       93  78  94  78 /  30  20  60  40
Naples           93  77  92  79 /  20  30  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...Culver