361
FXUS62 KMFL 162338
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
738 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity from earlier has dissipated and
given way to mainly dry conditions across the region. West
southwesterly winds will gradually become light and variable as
the evening progresses. There will be enough lower level moisture
in place to support patchy fog development over portions of
Southwest Florida during the overnight hours. The best chances of
fog development will be over the interior sections. Any fog that
does develop will lift shortly after sunrise on Friday morning.
Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s
across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s along the east
and west coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The frontal boundary has stalled over Central Florida and is
expected to sit there before the mid-level trough departs out of the
area by tomorrow. The stationary front will allow tropical moisture
to pool over the region and keep dew points in the 70s. Combining
this with low level flow out of the SW will keep hot and muggy
conditions across all of South Florida and keep the environment
unstable. The latest 12Z sounding and aircraft soundings show
anywhere between ~3000-4000 J/kg of CAPE with PWATs just under 2
inches. With this profile, there will be potential for a few severe
thunderstorms again today for the east coast counties. The soundings
mainly show a large hail growth zone, which could produce hail of 1
inch or larger in some storms as well as severe wind gusts due to a
potential core collapsing. Even with some melting of hail below the
freezing level, it still possible for 1 inch hail with the
aforementioned sounding parameters. There currently is a marginal
risk for severe storms for all of Palm Beach and Broward counties
(including the lake) plus the northern half of Miami-Dade. However,
the highest threat for severe storms is expected for eastern Palm
Beach and Broward counties. This is a result of multiple factors
which include the strongest vorticity advection in the region
occurring there, proximity to the stationary front, and SW flow in
the low levels steering convection to those areas. Storms will be
monitored as they develop throughout the day.

Skies will clear out tonight under nocturnal cooling and as broad
ridging builds over the region. With winds becoming extremely light
and variable and lingering moisture keeping dew points in the mid
70s overnight, some patchy fog will be possible for inland areas and
extending to the west coast. For the day on Friday, the ridge will
help stabilize the local atmosphere and keep conditions drier, but
there will remain slight chances for a few showers and isolated
storms as sea and gulf breezes develop in the afternoon. Further
convection could occur from outflow boundaries and collisions
between outflows and the sea/gulf breezes.

Temperatures for today will peak in the low to mid 90s and then
increase into the mid to upper 90s for most locations on Friday.
Heat indices have the potential to rise into advisory criteria for
several counties on Friday, and if trends continue then a Heat
Advisory will be issued when deemed necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Hazardous heat will be the primary concern for the upcoming weekend
due to the lingering hot and humid airmass over South FL. The south-
southwesterly flow, with the trough to our north, will keep the
conditions in place allowing the temperatures to amplify further and
likely peaking on Saturday. Therefore, most of South Florida
could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory on
Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well. Further details will be
provided as we approach the weekend. High temperatures are
expected to be in the 90s region wide each afternoon. Lower to
mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of
interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or
low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro
may struggle to dip below 80 degrees with some of the interior &
GOMEX coast struggling to drop below the upper 70s.

By the late weekend into early next week, the mid-level troughing
over the Southeast US will begin to dip further south and stall
out in the area, finally sending a front through South Florida. On
Sunday, there will be the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chance (50-60%) in the northern half
of the region, ahead of the frontal boundary as it moves across
the Peninsula. As the front passes through region, there will be
chances for showers and thunderstorms, with some strong storms
possible to start the new week. After the front clears the area, a
slightly cooler airmass will settle in through mid-week and
provide relief from the recent stretch of heat with high
temperatures likely in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the area
and low temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the period. WSW winds
will become light and variable this evening. Patchy fog may
develop overnight over portions of interior SW Florida. Winds
will increase out of the SW late Friday morning. Winds may shift
to the SSE on Friday afternoon over the east coast terminals as a
sea breeze pushes inland. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out
Friday afternoon around the east coast terminals, however,
confidence is too low to put in TAFS this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Mainly benign conditions over the next few days with light to
moderate west-southwest flow gradually turning southerly by this
weekend. There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly over the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow, which could
create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

There will be a moderate risk for rip currents along the Gulf coast
today with onshore flow. Along the Atlantic, rip current risks will
be low over the next several days with generally light, offshore
flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  95  81  93 /  10  20   0  20
West Kendall     75  95  78  96 /  10  20   0  20
Opa-Locka        77  95  80  95 /  20  20   0  20
Homestead        76  95  80  94 /  10  20  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  78  94  81  92 /  20  30  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  77  93  80  93 /  20  30  10  30
Pembroke Pines   77  95  81  97 /  20  20   0  20
West Palm Beach  74  95  76  93 /  20  30  10  40
Boca Raton       76  93  78  94 /  20  30  10  30
Naples           78  91  79  93 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Simmons
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC