653
FXUS62 KMHX 070806
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
406 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through today and this evening,
with weak high pressure building in this weekend. Another front
will move through Sunday night into early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM Fri...Very active morning continues to unfold over
eastern NC as weak shortwave and area of enhanced vorticity aid
in convective development, primarily focused along or just south
of the Crystal Coast along a sharp instability gradient. Lighter
rainfall persists inland, associated with a pre-frontal trough
draped across south central NC. The main cold front is still to
our west, draped from roughly Charlotte to Raleigh-Durham.

Ongoing convective activity will persist into dawn as the
shortwave aloft pivots across the area, with activity either
pushing offshore or gradually decaying by morning. Any severe
risk this morning will be focused along the immediate Crystal
Coast where instability is strongest. Stronger winds due to wet
microbursts would be the primary risk, although the probability
is low - under 5%.

Once the morning activity clears out, focus then turns to this
afternoon where the diurnal seabreeze will provide a focal point
for shower and storm development. Activity is expected to be
isolated at best thanks to a much drier column aloft (PWATs
about a half inch lower than this morning). Westerly surface
flow will keep sea breeze and convective activity pinned along
the coast, ensuring the coastal plain remains dry. Shear will be
very weak and no severe threat is expected. Still very warm
today with highs nearing 90 inland, but not as oppressive as Tds
fall into the upper 50s across the coastal plain. Along the
coast, humid conditions hold on with Tds in the upper 60s to
around 70.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM Fri....Convective activity will quickly collapse
before sunset as cold front eventually pushes offshore tonight
and high pressure builds in its wake. Clear skies and light
winds, coupled with the much drier airmass, will set the stage
for an unusually mild night for early June as temperatures fall
into the low 60s across the coastal plain. More typical
overnight conditions linger along the coast, with overnight lows
in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM Fri...Mostly dry with a more comfortable airmass
expected this weekend as weak high pressure builds in. Another
front will push through Sunday night and early Monday, bringing
threat for sct showers and storms. Low confidence forecast
Monday night through late week, with still a large spread in the
guidance.

Friday night through Sunday...Upper troughing becomes more
zonal along the east coast through the weekend with weak high
pressure building in, keeping area mostly dry. A more comfortable
airmass expected over the weekend with dewpoints falling into
the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s Sat and 80s to low 90s
Sun.

Sunday night through Thursday...A front will move through
Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing chances for sct
showers and storms. Low confidence forecast Monday night
through late week, with still a large spread in the guidance.
Upper troughing will continue over the eastern US, with
potential for another frontal passage and sfc low development
Monday night through mid week. GFS continues to be the wetter
solution, keeping the front stalled across the area through mid
week. Given lack of run to run consistency and uncertainty,
will continue to trend towards the previous forecast, while
incorporating the newer NBM, increasing pops slightly but
capping at chance.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sat/...
As of 140 AM Fri...VFR conditions prevail across eastern NC this
morning outside of persistent convective activity. Keeping an
eye on a reinvigoration of a broken band of showers and
thunderstorms stretching from EDE southwestward to DPL,
advancing eastward with isolated cells developing ahead of this
line as well. These will pose a near term threat to OAJ and EWN
through 07z, while PGV and ISO are on the more stable side of
this line and will deal mainly with RA, although an occasional
lightning strike or two is possible. For all terminals,
convective threat will end by 09-10z as pre-frontal trough
swings offshore.

Second round of mainly isolated convection is possible this
afternoon along the seabreeze, although with more westerly to
west-northwesterly flow aloft activity will migrate little from
the coast. OAJ and EWN have the best chance of being impacted,
while coastal plain terminals remain dry. Any activity will
quickly collapse with loss of heating, with skies becoming clear
by Fri evening.

Breezy westerly winds will gust to 15+ kt at times particularly
across the coastal plain.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 310 AM Fri...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday
with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers and
storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which may
bring brief periods of sub- VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR Mon
night into Tue with sct showers and storms.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 405 AM Fri...Convectively active morning ongoing across
area waters this morning, especially across portions of Onslow
and Raleigh Bays as shortwave trough provides support for a
messy complex of showers and storms. Outside of this, marine
conditions are improving ahead of an approaching cold front with
southwesterly winds falling to 10-15 kt over soundside waters,
but still 15-20 kt offshore. Seas offshore range from 2-4 feet
north of Cape Hatteras to 4-6 feet south, although some of this
is likely enhanced by convection.

Forecast today calls for gradual improvement through the day as
convective activity pushes offshore and front slowly approaches
from the west. Southwesterly winds will increase this afternoon
to around 15 kt thanks to seabreeze circulations, but will
gradually veer west and the northwesterly overnight into
Saturday as the front crosses the waters. A minority of guidance
suggests a brief surge of northwesterly winds of 15+ kt behind
the front, particularly for the waters north of Cape Hatteras.
If this does occur, it will be brief - no more than a couple
hours.

Only remaining SCA headlines are for the offshore waters south
of Oregon Inlet, and observational trends suggest the advisories
will probably be able to be dropped behind this morning`s
convection.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 310 AM Fri...Light to moderate N-NW winds Sat 5-15 kt.
Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday ahead of another cold
front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt by Sunday evening,
with the front moving through Sunday night into early Monday
morning. A brief period of SCA conditions will be possible with
potential for a few hours of 25 kt gusts. Winds will grad
diminish through the day Mon. Seas 2-3 ft Sat and Sun, building
to 2-4 ft Sunday evening. Another front and low pressure area
may impact the waters Monday night into Tuesday, though given
the spread in the guidance and little run to run consistency,
confidence remains low through mid week. SCA conditions will be
possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/MS