034
FXUS62 KMHX 071715
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
115 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through today and this evening,
with weak high pressure building in this weekend. Another front
will move through Sunday night into early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1300 Friday...Near term remains largely unchanged with
the forecast tracking well. Front is currently bisecting the FA
located along the HWY17 corridor. Seabreeze has remained pinned
to the coast with localized CU field near it with some shower
activity starting to blossom over DownEast Carteret.

Previous Disco as of 715 AM Fri...Focus then turns to this
afternoon where the diurnal seabreeze will provide a focal point
for shower and storm development. Activity is expected to be
isolated at best thanks to a much drier column aloft (PWATs
about a half inch lower than this morning). Westerly surface
flow will keep sea breeze and convective activity pinned along
the coast, ensuring the coastal plain remains dry. Shear will be
very weak and no severe threat is expected. Still very warm
today with highs nearing 90 inland, but not as oppressive as Tds
fall into the upper 50s across the coastal plain. Along the
coast, humid conditions hold on with Tds in the upper 60s to
around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM Fri....Convective activity will quickly collapse
before sunset as cold front eventually pushes offshore tonight
and high pressure builds in its wake. Clear skies and light
winds, coupled with the much drier airmass, will set the stage
for an unusually mild night for early June as temperatures fall
into the low 60s across the coastal plain. More typical
overnight conditions linger along the coast, with overnight lows
in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM Fri...Mostly dry with a more comfortable airmass
expected this weekend as weak high pressure builds in. Another
front will push through Sunday night and early Monday, bringing
threat for sct showers and storms. Low confidence forecast
Monday night through late week, with still a large spread in the
guidance.

Friday night through Sunday...Upper troughing becomes more
zonal along the east coast through the weekend with weak high
pressure building in, keeping area mostly dry. A more comfortable
airmass expected over the weekend with dewpoints falling into
the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s Sat and 80s to low 90s
Sun.

Sunday night through Thursday...A front will move through
Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing chances for sct
showers and storms. Low confidence forecast Monday night
through late week, with still a large spread in the guidance.
Upper troughing will continue over the eastern US, with
potential for another frontal passage and sfc low development
Monday night through mid week. GFS continues to be the wetter
solution, keeping the front stalled across the area through mid
week. Given lack of run to run consistency and uncertainty,
will continue to trend towards the previous forecast, while
incorporating the newer NBM, increasing pops slightly but
capping at chance.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sat/...
As of 1315 Friday...VFR flight cats through the TAF period.
Main focus for aviation interests is isolated convective
potential this afternoon along the seabreeze. With more
W-WNWerly flow aloft, activity will migrate little from the
coast. Expecting activity to remain E of TAF sites. Have removed
thunder mention for EWN but left in for OAJ due to their
proximity to where the front will collide with the pinned
seabreeze. Coastal Plain terminals remain dry. Any activity
will quickly collapse with loss of heating, with skies becoming
clear by tonight. Breezy Werly winds could gust to 15+ kt at
times this afternoon, particularly across the coastal plain.
Only chance for subVFR in the period will be if the front stalls
over the area overnight as opposed to pushing offshore tonight,
which could lead to some fog development. Chances of this
happening are very low.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 310 AM Fri...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday
with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers and
storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which may
bring brief periods of sub- VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR Mon
night into Tue with sct showers and storms.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 720 AM Fri...Trimmed SCA headlines back to only the outer
central waters where gusty winds around 25 kt are holding strong
particularly near Diamond Shoals.

Prev disc...Convective activity is now pushing offshore,
and marine conditions are improving ahead of an approaching
cold front with southwesterly winds falling to 10-15 kt over
soundside waters, but still 15-20 kt offshore. Seas offshore
range from 2-4 feet north of Cape Hatteras to 4-6 feet south,
although some of this is likely enhanced by convection.

Forecast today calls for gradual improvement through the day as
convective activity pushes offshore and front slowly approaches
from the west. Southwesterly winds will increase this afternoon
to around 15 kt thanks to seabreeze circulations, but will
gradually veer west and the northwesterly overnight into
Saturday as the front crosses the waters. A minority of guidance
suggests a brief surge of northwesterly winds of 15+ kt behind
the front, particularly for the waters north of Cape Hatteras.
If this does occur, it will be brief - no more than a couple
hours.

Only remaining SCA headlines are for the offshore waters south
of Oregon Inlet, and observational trends suggest the advisories
will probably be able to be dropped behind this morning`s
convection.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 310 AM Fri...Light to moderate N-NW winds Sat 5-15 kt.
Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday ahead of another cold
front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt by Sunday evening,
with the front moving through Sunday night into early Monday
morning. A brief period of SCA conditions will be possible with
potential for a few hours of 25 kt gusts. Winds will grad
diminish through the day Mon. Seas 2-3 ft Sat and Sun, building
to 2-4 ft Sunday evening. Another front and low pressure area
may impact the waters Monday night into Tuesday, though given
the spread in the guidance and little run to run consistency,
confidence remains low through mid week. SCA conditions will be
possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...CQD/MS