136
FXUS62 KMHX 161734
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
134 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
high pressure builds Thursday keeping us dry. Another low
pressure system impacts us this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1315 Thursday...No changes required to the near term with
SFC low and its associated fronts continuing to push further
offshore to the ENE as we settle into the post- frontal air
mass and upper ridging building in from the W. Sea breeze
develops in the afternoon, but doesn`t progress too far inland
due to the NW flow. There will be some convergence along the
boundary which could lead to some showers popping up along the
boundary and moving SEwardly back toward the coast and offshore
this afternoon. However, moisture in the column is confined to
the low levels and NWerly downsloping flow aloft should act to
inhibit any stronger updrafts. Dry forecast will be continued.
MaxTs ~80 away from the immediate coast, low 70s OBX, mid-upper
70s Crystal Coast Beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 500 AM Thursday..Low offshore to our east strengthens a
tad, and winds pick up as a result for OBX Thursday night,
preventing any decoupling. Over mainland ENC however, we should
decouple, allowing us to radiate a bit as ridging keeps us
mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s inland, low 60s for beaches.
If we end up clearing completely overnight, lows might be even
lower to the low to mid 50s, but seems unlikely at the moment.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 430 AM Thursday...High pressure will be across the area
Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area this
weekend. High pressure builds back in toward the middle of next
week.

Friday...Ridging crest over the area Friday but shortwave energy
will be approaching that could aid in initiating a few showers
during the afternoon, generally along the sea breeze as it
migrates inland. Instability will be meager with MUCAPE less
than 1000 J/kg keeping tstm chances below mentionable.

Friday night through Sunday night...A complex low pressure
system will impact the region through the weekend. A southern
stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region
Friday night into Saturday with sfc low pressure moving across
the region late Saturday or early Sunday. The system then
transitions into a vertically stack low as it slowly pushes
across the Mid-Atlantic and off the coast through the latter
half of the weekend. As with most cut-off systems, there are
differences among the models with the evolution, timing and
track with this system but unsettled weather will impact the
region through much of the period. Beneficial rainfall is
expected with much of the area forecast to receive around 1.5-2"
with locally higher amounts possible.

Monday through Wednesday...The upper low slowly slides southward
early next week with high pressure building across the Mid-
Atlantic. There could be a few lingering showers into Monday but
expect dry conditions into Wednesday. A mid level shortwave and
attendant cold front approaches the area late Wednesday but
moisture looks limited at this time with deep layer westerly
flow providing subsidence to the lee of the Appalachians.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...
As of 1320 Thursday...VFR flight cats through the day Thurs with
low-end chance of subVFR flight cats overnight due to fog. CU
field around FL040-050 and light NWerly background wind field
through the rest of the afternoon. Seabreeze forecast to remain
pinned to the coast through the afternoon where some shower
activity is possible, but anything that does pop up is expected
to remain E of the TAF sites. Greatest chance to see fog
overnight SWern terminals (OAJ). Have included VFR MIFG mention
for EWN and ISO with guidance having little agreement for how
far E/N the fog will develop. Any fog that does develop will
dissipate shortly after sunrise.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Friday but
could see isolated showers during the afternoon bringing brief
periods of sub-VFR. A low pressure system will impact the area
through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions
Friday night through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 500 AM Thursday...SCA for coastal waters between Cape
Lookout and Surf City has expired, leaving us with better
boating conditions through Thursday. Seas 3-5ft and NE winds
near 10kts right now become 2-4ft and NW winds near 10kts this
afternoon.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 415 AM Thursday...High pressure will be over the waters
Friday with winds generally less than 15 kt and seas around 2-4
ft, but could be locally higher near the Gulf Stream. A complex
low pressure system will impact the region Friday night through
Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance
for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through
Saturday night as low pressure transits the Southeast. The best
opportunity for SCA conditions will develop sometime Sunday and
continue into early next week with N to NE winds as low
pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. There are differences
among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure
to follow updates as details come into focus.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/CEB
MARINE...SK/RJ