318
FXUS62 KMHX 181807
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
207 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move into eastern NC late today and cross
the region Thursday producing unsettled conditions across
eastern NC. High pressure will build over the area over the
weekend into early next week with mostly fair weather conditions
expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 2 PM Wednesday...Though mid mid level troughing will
continue across the eastern US today, we are expecting mostly
dry conditions as deep layered dry air prevails across eastern
NC. However, there is enough instability for a few showers or
thunderstorms to develop well inland /mainly west of Highway 17/
this afternoon in corridor of better instability which will
occur just ahead of an approaching weak cold front. It will be
warm and muggy with highs in the low to mid-80s and dewpoints in
the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Wednesday...Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a weak cold front moving
through the area this evening. The activity will weaken late
evening with the loss of heating. Guidance is indicating that
widespread low clouds and areas of fog developing tonight behind
the front. Lows inland will be in the mid to upper 60s with
lower 70s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...Mid/upper level trough lingering over
the region through the end of the work week brings daily precip
chances through Friday, and ridging starts moving in from the
north and west through the weekend as a low spins up well
offshore confining precip chances generally east of hwy 17
through the remainder of the long term period. Seasonable (or
just below) temps through the period.

Thursday:
Mid and upper level trough starts shifting eastward over ENC
Thursday and its surface counterpart low pressure system starts
to strengthen offshore of the delmarva peninsula and NJ. We will
have enough mid and upper level forcing directly above us paired
with PWATs near 1.75" and CAPEs near 500-750 J/kg for scattered
showers and thunderstorms (PoPs near 50%). Current expectation
is for most of the convection to remain thunder free with lower
instability, but if CAPEs start trending higher thunderstorm
coverage would increase as a result. Deep Layer Shear generally
below 20 kts will limit the severe potential and storms aren`t
expected to become tall enough for damaging microbursts. If
there is any hazard to be mindful of Thursday, it would be slow
to moderate storm motions allowing for rainfall to accumulate
over areas that already have saturated soils from the recent
rainfall. Northerly flow would allow the sea breeze to remain
close to the coast (if it develops at all), which could cause
problems for Carteret County as the sea breeze would provide
additional stationary forcing. However this a low probability
outcome and we will have a better idea once more hi-res guidance
comes in. Showers and Tstorms will scour our with the loss of
daytime heating Thursday evening/night.

Friday:
Mid/upper level trough starts moving offshore to the east Friday
PM as high pressure starts moving in from the west. Decreased
forcing and a drop in PWATs will lead to clearing skies and
precip chances highest offshore and along OBX. Thunder possible
offshore, but expecting just showers over land Friday. Rain
chances east of hwy 17 are 20-30% Friday with drier condition
expected for the coastal plain. Low continues meandering off the
delmarva coast, sandwiched between ridging from all directions.

The Weekend:
Low precip chances, 10-20% for offshore and OBX, as low
continues meandering to our east. Substantial ridging builds in
over ENC from the north, which provides a stronger pressure
gradient through the weekend and early next week. This will
result in a slight uptick in winds, but skies are expected to
remain partly/mostly cloudy through the weekend.

Monday-Tuesday:
Ridging and drier conditions continue through Monday, and
Tuesday the high shifts offshore reintroducing slight chances of
rain again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 1:45 PM Wednesday...All TAF sites have finally returned
to VFR as of this afternoon, but ample low level moisture has
allowed low clouds to stick around. Tonight will be a very
similar story to last night with fog and low stratus likely
developing after midnight. The inner coastal plain terminals
(PGV and ISO) have the greatest chance of seeing fog and low
stratus, but these conditions are on the table for all
terminals.

My thinking is that low stratus will develop after midnight and
drop ceilings to low-end MVFR to IFR. As we progress towards
Thursday morning, ceilings and visibilities will likely bottom
out between 8-13Z with LIFR (and possibily VLIFR) visibilities
possible. As the sun comes up, conditions will be slow to
improve. MVFR ceilings will liklely stick around for all TAF
sites through the end of the period when chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms come into play (45-50%).

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...Continued unsettled weather will bring
a chance for brief/occasional sub- VFR conditions across ENC
Thursday due to widely scattered to scattered mainly afternoon
and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Friday onward VFR
conditions expected, although Saturday morning could see some
fog as skies clear and winds calm.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...Light /10 kt or less/ winds are
expected across the waters through tonight. Winds will be SW
over the southern and central waters all day and becoming NE
over the northern waters and northern sounds late today. Tonight
winds will become NW-N all waters behind a weak cold front
moving through the area overnight. Seas will remain 3-5 ft
northern waters and outer central waters through tonight and
mainly 2-4 ft elsewhere.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...Winds should remain generally light
/10 kt or less/ through Thursday with the flow veering from W/SW
to N/NW. Northerly winds increase to 10-15 kt Fri then become
15-20 kt Sat. and 20-25 kt Sunday. There is a 30-40% chance of
seeing gale force gusts for the central and northern waters and
the Pamlico Sound Sunday into early Monday. The strength of the
winds depends on the position and strength of the low
developing offshore to our northeast, and how strong the
ridging pushing in from the north is. Seas will be 2-4 ft
through Friday, then increase to 3-6 ft Saturday and 4-7 ft
Sunday as gusty winds + the low offshore results in higher
swell.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 415 AM Wednesday...Coastal flooding will continue to be a
risk given the higher than normal astronomical tide cycle.
Based on continued reports of flooding, and the higher water
levels, Coastal Flood Advisory will likely have to be extended for
Ocracoke through the week due to the vulnerable dune structures
on hwy 12 north of the village. Will observe this morning`s high
tide at 8AM before coming to a final decision however. Carteret
Co will continue seeing elevated seas during high tide, but
there is a relative lull over the next couple days before
conditions worsen again Friday into the weekend. For this
reason, the Carteret Co. coastal flood advisory will drop as
scheduled at 11AM today unless the morning high tide exceeds
expectations.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ204.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...OJC/RJ
MARINE...JME/OJC/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX