344
FXUS62 KMHX 291700
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
100 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front meanders offshore through the day before being
pushed well offshore by a reinforcing cold front moving through
tonight/early Thursday morning. High pressure builds in for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 11 AM Wednesday...Light northerly flow continues across
the region late this morning behind the initial cold front that
is now offshore which is advecting in a somewhat drier airmass
into the region, particularly the coastal plain where dewpoints
have dropped to around 60 degrees. Winds will back to westerly
across the coastal plain this afternoon while the sea breeze
will develop along the coast with easterly/onshore flow along
the coast. Low level convergence along the sea breeze in the
presence of around 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE could trigger a
isolated showers near the coast this afternoon but otherwise
expect dry conditions across the FA with temps in the mid to
upper 80s, although onshore flow will keep temps in the 70s
along the northern OBX. Forecast update mainly captures latest
trends in temps/PoPs.

Previous discussion...Slow moving cold front continues to
meander near the area just offshore through the day. Overnight
fog is quickly dissipating as expected. Light offshore (NWerly)
flow is expected behind FROPA, though synoptic flow is quite
weak, and by afternoon local sea/sound/river breezes will
dominate. An approaching reinforcing cold front may aid moisture
transport in the lower levels and increase convergence out
ahead of the seabreeze. There is also a very weak shortwave
working through the broad troughing aloft this afternoon. HiRes
guidance continues to hone in on this and show iso showers
developing along the sea/sound/river breezes this afternoon, so
have included a low- end SChc PoP for these areas. But, with
lack of significant forcing and drier air intrusion with Tds in
the low 60s, have opted to keep thunder out of this afternoon`s
shower possibility. Highs will be in the mid 80s area wide,
except for the OBX and immediate beaches, which will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 0345 Wednesday...Any precip activity associated with the
afternoon`s sea/sound/river breezes wanes quickly with loss of
heating this evening. Reinforcing cold front moves through the
area from NW to SE through the overnight, reaching the coast in
the early morning hours. With the amplifying trough aloft and
the sfc front moving through, some showers and maybe even some
tstorms will be possible for NEern zones this evening into
tonight with PoPs increasing along the OBX and Sern coast as
the front passes through in the hours either side of midnight.
Precip chances drop drastically post FROPA as cool dry high
pressure builds in over the air from the N. MinTs upper 50s
inland, low to mid 60s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

 - Below to well below normal temperatures, and low humidity, this
weekend

Synoptic Summary: Notable upper level troughing will develop across
the Eastern U.S. late this week and into this weekend, with strong
high pressure at the surface. Next week, a highly amplified upper
ridge is forecast to develop over the Western U.S., with general
troughing remaining in place across the Eastern U.S. At the surface,
high pressure is forecast to slide offshore, setting up a moistening
return flow in the low-levels.

Thursday-Friday: A potent shortwave, and an associated 100kt upper
jet, are forecast to round the base of the upper trough later
Thursday into Friday. Modest low-mid level moistening beneath cool
temps aloft will support a period of weak instability timed out with
the passage of the shortwave and a backdoor cold front. This should
support the development of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, especially late Thursday into Thursday night. Severe
weather is not expected with this activity, but with cooler temps
aloft, perhaps some pea size hail could occur. The shortwave will
move offshore during the day Friday, with strong subsidence
developing in its wake. This should put an end to any shower
activity.

Saturday-Sunday: Sprawling surface high pressure moving over the Mid-
Atlantic and Carolinas should lead to a dry weekend locally.
Additionally, cooler than normal low-level thicknesses should
support near to below normal temperatures, especially at night with
the high overhead. Right now, Saturday morning looks to be the
coolest morning, with inland lows in the low 50s, and mid to upper
50s closer to the coast. Of note, some of the lowest available
guidance suggests a few of the typically colder locations inland may
drop into the upper 40s. This would be roughly 10-15 degrees below
normal.

Monday-Wednesday: The general consensus of medium range guidance is
for high pressure to shift offshore, allowing a return flow of
moisture off the Gulf and Atlantic. This doesn`t necessarily mean an
immediate return to an active pattern, however. It appears it will
take some extra time to sufficiently moisten the column after a
period of very dry air overhead. At minimum, we may begin to see
some seabreeze convection return by Tuesday or Wednesday, but
nothing overly impressive appears to be on the horizon, thunderstorm-
wise. One caveat, though, is that it looks like an active period
across the High Plains, which sometimes can lead to the development
of an MCV, or two, that could eventually have a downstream impact
locally, and some guidance depicts the convective risk increasing as
early as Monday. Thunderstorms aside, temps will steadily warm back
to normal, as will humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 1255 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected through
the TAF period as high pressure builds into the area. Some of
the high res models are forecasting an area of IFR ceilings
developing over the Outer Banks early Thu and spreading inland
toward the northern TAF sites. Since this is currently an
outlier solution will not include in the official TAF forecasts
but will include the lower clouds just east of the TAF sites in
the grids while continuing to monitor.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Monday/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

SHRA and isolated TSRA are possible spread VFR conditions are
then expected over the weekend, especially during the day. Each
night and early morning, however, light winds and clear skies
may support periods of sub-VFR conditions in BR/FG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 0415 Wednesday...Latest obs show W-SW winds 5-10 kt with
seas 2-3 ft. For Wed afternoon, local sea/sound/river breezes
will dominate due to weak general winds, but will be light, less
than 10 kt. Seas will be 3 ft or less through Wed. Showers and
tstorms possible overnight for Nern waters as reinforcing cold
front swings through.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

 - Periods of breezy north winds through the weekend

 - Elevated seas possible over the weekend

The East Coast will be solidly in a northerly flow regime through
the weekend, with a series of shortwaves and fronts moving through.
Each wave will have a bump up in winds, although ensemble guidance
currently suggests the risk of 25kt winds is <10% with each wave.
Something to watch, though, especially with enhanced mixing over the
now-warmer waters. By late in the weekend or early next week, an
area of low pressure developing out in the northern Atlantic may
send a stronger long-period northeasterly swell of 10-12s towards
the coast of ENC, which may lead to a period of elevated seas.
Otherwise, an extended period of 2-4ft seas is expected.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...JME/CEB
MARINE...CEB/RCF