Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
188 FXUS63 KMKX 061540 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1040 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy today, with gusts to 35 MPH. Continued breezy tomorrow and Saturday, but with gusts closer to 20-25 MPH. - Spotty showers this afternoon and early evening, especially north and east of a line from Milwaukee to the Dells. - Additional rain chances on Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued 1040 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The small chance (20%) for isolated to scattered light rain showers for areas along and north of a line from the Dells to Watertown to Milwaukee this afternoon persists. Areas closer to Sheboygan and Fond du Lac will have the best chances near 30%. Synoptic ascent on the western edge of an upper level low and some mid level moisture will be what we have to work with in regards to showers. The stratocumulus cloud deck is already starting to bubble up on Satellite across central and east central Wisconsin. Any sprinkles/drizzle from these clouds will be the extent of the rainfall this afternoon. Otherwise the windy conditions continue with multiple automated stations reporting gusts of 30-35 mph. Patterson && .SHORT TERM... Issued 324 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Today through Friday: Brisk west to northwest winds are expected across the region today, helping to bring in a cooler and drier airmass. Cyclonic flow and cold temperatures aloft will support the development of a widespread stratocu deck this afternoon, with cloud cover increasing further north and east. Spotty rain showers are expected from these clouds this afternoon and early evening, with the best chances north and east of a line from Milwaukee to the Dells, where mid level moisture will be more robust. These showers could also have some enhanced winds with them, as stronger momentum is mixed down. Even outside of the showers, look for winds to gust as high as 35 MPH at times. Gusts and shower chances should diminish fairly rapidly with sunset. Temperatures will be on the cooler side compared to the last several days, with highs in the mid to upper 60s to around 70, with the cooler readings across the north where clouds will be more widespread. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 50s, with clearing skies. Winds should say high enough to largely mitigate the fog threat, but given the considerable amount of ground moisture, patchy fog development is certainly possible in any location that is well sheltered from the wind. A similar pattern continues for Friday, though overall it will be a less windy, less cloudy, and slightly warmer day, with highs in the low 70s. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 324 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Friday night through Wednesday: A warm front over the central Plains will lift northward toward (though not into) the region late Friday and early Saturday, with strong warm advection over the top of this frontal zone producing another round of rainfall across the region Saturday morning and early afternoon. Robust frontogenesis may support a band of higher rainfall rates/totals, though placement is hard to nail down at this distance. Another front will drop southward into the area on Sunday, with colder temperatures aloft again supporting a few showers during the afternoon hours. High pressure is expected to move through the area on Monday, with southwesterly return flow developing for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will bring renewed chances for rain and a few thunderstorms, along with warming temperatures and increased humidity. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 1040 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions will persist through the period. A scattered to broken stratocumulus deck of clouds is beginning to develop across central Wisconsin late this morning. These clouds are expected to be around 4-6 kft through the afternoon. There will be a small chance (around 20%) for some light rain showers/drizzle this afternoon for terminals along and north of a line from the Dells (DLL) to Milwaukee (MKE). The best chances will be for terminals near central Wisconsin including Fond du Lac (FLD) and Sheboygan (SBM). Gusty west to northwest winds are expected through the day with gusts of 25-30 kts expected. Overnight winds will weakens slightly as we loose some diurnal mixing. The breezy to gusty winds will pick back up again tomorrow but will be slightly weaker with gusts of 20-25 kts expected. Patterson && .MARINE... Issued 324 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Gusty west winds are expected for the next several days, as low pressure very slowly translates eastward across northern Ontario. Winds will be strongest today, with a very gradual reduction in speed through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters from this morning through mid evening. Another Advisory may be needed for tomorrow. Winds then are expected to turn more northerly on Sunday, as another cold front sweeps through the region. High pressure will move through on Monday, with winds taking on a more southerly direction on Tuesday. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Thursday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee