Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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942 FXUS62 KMLB 020912 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 512 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 507 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Today...High pressure centered off the NC coast early this morning will continue seaward and away from the area. An gradual easing of the pressure gradient will produce a little less wind than yesterday though the sea breeze circulation will enhance the onshore flow with gusts up to 25 mph esp at the coast this aftn. Increased moisture in the mid and upper levels will bring some cloudiness from the west. While in the low levels, marine stratocu will push onshore with isolated showers along the Treasure coast. The increased moisture will support 30-40% PoPs across southern and interior sections as the sea breeze pushes inland with a late collision over the far interior. Lowest rain chances will be over Volusia county. CAMs show another round of scattered storms pushing offshore the Treasure coast late evening into the overnight. This may be assocd with earlier storms over S/SW FL lifting NE and assocd outflow sparking add`l convection. Have drawn 30-40% PoPs south of the Cape for this possibility. Max temps remaining seasonable in the mid 80s coast and around 90 interior. Mon-Sat...A weak high pressure ridge axis will gradually settle southward from 30N lat Mon to south FL Thu-Fri as a weak frontal boundary pushes into the deep South supported by a deep upper cut-off low rotating into the Great Lakes. Moisture looks fairly limited so the daily 30-40% PoPs may be a bit generous. Have more confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming trend with lower 90s interior Mon reaching mid 90s Tue thru the end of the week. These low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by late week as the sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed. This will also shift the daily sea breeze collisions to our (east) side of the peninsula. Provided there is sufficient moisture, scattered sea breeze storms may result but residual mid level dry air may produce strong storms, accompanied by gusty winds and of course lightning strikes which could spark add`l brush fires. This is the typical story as we transition to the wet season. Heat Risk will become a concern once again late this week with peak heat indices reaching 100-105 Thu-Fri and 102-107 on Sat. && .MARINE... Issued at 507 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure offshore the Carolina coast this morning will continue seaward over the western Atlantic. A trailing ridge axis will extend westward across north Florida into midweek, maintaining the onshore flow. The ridge axis is forecast to then slip south across the waters late week. Conditions will be less than ideal today for small craft but conditions will become more favorable Monday and continue much of the upcoming week. ESE winds starting out near 15 knots this morning and choppy seas 4 to 5 feet will gradually improve through the afternoon. The onshore flow will decrease 7-10 knots tonight with slight enhancement of 12-14 knots each aftn near the coast behind the sea breeze. Seas generally 2-3 FT Tue-Thu. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 507 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to move away from the area while a trailing ridge axis extends westward to the southeast US coast through mid week. This will maintain an onshore flow, enhanced by the sea breeze each afternoon reaching 10-15 mph, gusting near 20 mph. Dispersion values will be Very Good and there will continue to be a concern for spread of any new or ongoing fires despite the fact that Red Flag conditions are not forecast. Min RH values will hold near 40% over the interior and 50-55% near the coast. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible each day. High temperatures will gradually warm each day, returning to the mid 90s interior by mid week and spreading to the east coast late week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Onshore moving showers are expected this morning near the Treasure Coast before scattered lightning storms develop this afternoon over the W interior along boundary collisions. E winds at 5-12kts will increase into the afternoon at 12-15kts with gusts to 20-24kts. TEMPO groups for SHRA/TSRA will likely be added later at KSUA/KISM as hi-res guidance comes into better agreement. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 71 87 71 / 20 10 30 10 MCO 89 71 90 71 / 30 20 40 10 MLB 86 73 87 73 / 30 30 40 20 VRB 87 71 88 71 / 40 30 40 20 LEE 90 71 91 72 / 30 20 40 10 SFB 89 71 91 71 / 30 20 40 10 ORL 90 72 91 72 / 30 20 40 10 FPR 86 70 87 71 / 40 40 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Fehling