040
FXUS62 KMLB 020135
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
935 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Onshore flow and a sufficiently deep marine layer has started to
whip up a few nocturnal sprinkles and light showers over the
central Florida Atlantic waters, and even one inland south of
Tradition, this past hour. Based on this trend, went ahead and
bumped the northward progression of rain chances along the
Treasure Coast through the overnight and early afternoon a little
earlier. PoPs near Hobe Sound and Stuart increase to 20 pct around
midnight, pushing northward through the night, reaching near
Sebastian by morning and Melbourne by late morning. 30 pct PoPs
arrive along the Treasure Coast by around 8 AM, pushing inland
through the morning and reaching Okeechobee around noon. 00Z HREF
has introduced a 0.5" QPF bull`s eye along the Treasure Coast
between 8 AM and 2 PM, increasing confidence for showers and
perhaps an isolated lightning storm, even if member models`
convective development remains inconsistent. Rest of the forecast
remains on track with no changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 934 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Predominantly VFR conditions, with increasing rain chances through
the TAF period. Gusty easterly winds 10-15 kts this evening settle
at around 5 kts 09Z, then pick back up to 10-15 kts along the
coast around 14Z and inland after 18Z, with gusts to 20 kts
possible but generally less than previous days. Increasing
confidence for onshore moving ISO-SCT SHRA impacts at coastal
terminals, so added northward progressing VCSH to KSUA-KMLB
starting 14Z-18Z. Diurnal TSRA/SHRA expected near or west of KLEE
around 20Z and push eastward through 00Z, then dissipate. Have
VCTS at all inland terminals starting 20Z-21Z, but confidence in
timing and coverage remains low, and TSRA/SHRA might not even make
it to KSFB. Keeping KDAB/KTIX dry for now.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Rest of Today-Tonight...High pressure drifts offshore into the
western Atlantic into tonight, maintaining onshore flow through
the period. A stout inversion above 850mb will keep us mostly dry,
but enough moisture exists below this layer to support a marine
stratocu deck. A few showers or storms will be possible in this
layer overnight tonight along and offshore from the Treasure
Coast. Otherwise, mostly dry. Winds will diminish after sunset
this evening, though continued onshore flow will be enough to keep
coastal areas in the lower to mid-70s.

Sunday...As high pressure settles in over the western Atlantic,
onshore flow eases, with winds under 10mph in the morning
increasing to 10-15mph, with gusts to around 20mph, behind the sea
breeze during the afternoon. Winds aloft will back westerly,
advecting in higher moisture into the mid and upper levels. A less
hostile environment aloft should allow for PoPs to reenter the
forecast. Models are in disagreement about the coverage of any
showers or storms Sunday afternoon, though a sea breeze collision
is expected over the interior. Thus, have PoPs 30-50% tomorrow,
with the highest PoPs over southern and western portions of the
forecast area. Easing onshore flow will allow afternoon high
temperatures to increase slightly, rising into the upper 80s
along the coast and lower 90s inland. Sunday night, low
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s expected.

Previous discussion..

Mon-Fri...A weak high pressure ridge axis will gradually settle
southward from north FL Mon to south FL Thu- Fri. Moisture looks
fairly limited so the daily 30-40% PoPs may be a bit generous.
Have more confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming
trend with lower 90s interior Mon reaching mid 90s Tue and
beyond. Such low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by late
week as the sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue through the
evening hours, improving into tonight as high pressure settles in
over the western Atlantic and winds diminish. Until then, onshore
flow to around 20kts south of Sebastian Inlet, with 10-20kts
elsewhere. Seas up to 6ft over the Treasure Coast waters will also
diminish this evening, becoming 4-5ft. 3-5ft for the Atlantic
waters north of this area. Showers and a few storms will be
possible over the Treasure Coast waters overnight, especially
towards morning.

Boating conditions improve late weekend into next week, as
easterly winds decrease to around 15kts or less. Will see winds
veer southeasterly/southerly by late week. Daily shower and
lightning storm chances, though PoPs remain around 30% or less
most days and do not exceed 50% through the period. Seas 3-4ft
Sunday becoming 2-3ft by Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Today...Sensitive fire weather conditions today, with breezy
easterly winds 15 to 20mph and gusts up to around 30 mph. Will
stay mostly dry through the overnight hours, though a few showers
or storms will be possible along the Treasure Coast, especially
towards morning. Min RH this afternoon between 35-45% over much of
the area, with the driest conditions inland. Very good to
excellent dispersion through sunset.

Sunday-Early Next Week...Conditions improve slightly Sunday into
early next week, as higher moisture creeps into the local area,
keeping min RH values 40-50% over the interior and higher along
the coast. Onshore flow will also diminish, though winds up to
15mph and gusts to 20mph are expected behind the sea breeze each
afternoon. PoPs increase beginning Sunday, becoming up to 30-50%,
with the highest chances over the interior. High temperatures will
be near to slightly above normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Good to very good dispersion each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  86  70  87 /  10  20  20  30
MCO  70  89  71  90 /   0  30  20  40
MLB  73  86  72  87 /  10  30  30  40
VRB  72  87  71  88 /  20  40  40  40
LEE  70  90  72  91 /   0  30  10  40
SFB  70  89  71  91 /  10  30  20  40
ORL  71  90  72  91 /   0  30  10  40
FPR  71  86  69  88 /  20  40  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Haley