124
FXUS62 KMLB 271759
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
159 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. There is an outside
chance of a SHRA/TSRA INVOF KVRB-KSUA but chances are too low for
VC mention. Most terminals remain in Wrly winds around 10 kts due
to a favored WCSB, but along the coast the ECSB has finally
started to push inland near KVRB-KSUA, and should follow suit at
KMLB-KDAB by around 20Z, turning winds S-SE. ECFL terminals remain
dry through late Tuesday morning, then SHRA/TSRA chances increase
as a weakening frontal boundary sags into or just short of the
area. Terminals along and north of I-4 pick up VCTS at 15Z-17Z,
and will need to be added to the remaining ECFL terminals after
18Z in the next package. TEMPOs for TSRA VIS reductions will
likely be needed, but at the moment cloud bases look high enough
to not warrant CIG reductions. Predominantly Wrly winds 5-10 kts
Tuesday between large scale flow and storm outflow, but should
seem some ECSB develop reaching the coastal terminals.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The 10z XMR sounding indicates a slight moistening above 500mb
with relatively similar conditions through the rest of the column,
when compared to yesterday`s 23z sounding. A near-surface
inversion will be slow to erode through the day, if it even does
so. Model guidance suggests a persistent inversion, along with a
weak wind profile over central Florida, will preclude much in the
way of convection this afternoon. If any showers or isolated
storms do develop, locations with the best chance for activity
will be along the east coast sea breeze, generally from near
Melbourne southward to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.
However, very low confidence exists in any measurable rain today.

Hot temperatures will remain the headline story through the
afternoon, with forecast highs in the mid to upper 90s, perhaps
approaching the century mark across southern interior locations.
Peak heat index values are still expected to top out around 100 to
105, so make sure to take breaks in the shade or air conditioning
and stay well-hydrated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions will be present across
the local Atlantic waters today with seas between 1 to 3 feet and
south-southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. The east coast sea breeze will
develop, causing wind to become south-southeast later this
afternoon. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through today, with
increasing rain and storm chances expected into the overnight hours.
Any storms that develop tonight may be capable of producing
occasional to frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours.

Tuesday-Friday...Favorable boating conditions are forecast to
continue through the remainder of the forecast period, with seas
generally between1 to 3 feet and winds remaining below 15 knots.
Wind direction will vary through the period, with winds becoming
onshore each afternoon due to the development of the sea breeze. A
weak frontal boundary is forecast to approach the local Atlantic
waters on Tuesday, with increasing rain and storm chances forecast.
Wednesday through the remainder of the work week, rain and storm
chances will remain in the forecast across the local waters. Any
storms that develop will be capable of producing lightning strikes,
gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Locally higher seas may also be
possible near stronger storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Minimum RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range across the interior
will lead to sensitive fire weather conditions today. Winds are
forecast to remain below 15 mph across the area. The heat continues,
with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to around 100 and peak heat
indices in the 100 to 105 range. Fire conditions will improve
slightly on Tuesday due to increasing moisture, but storms and
associated lightning strikes could lead to some concerns. Minimum RH
values will then drop back into the 35 to 45 percent range through
the remainder of the week, with some areas dropping to 30 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  93  72  91 /  10  30  10  10
MCO  75  94  74  96 /  10  40  10  20
MLB  75  93  74  91 /  20  30  30  20
VRB  74  95  73  91 /  20  40  40  30
LEE  75  92  73  95 /  20  40   0  10
SFB  74  95  73  95 /  10  40  10  10
ORL  76  94  75  96 /  10  40  10  20
FPR  74  95  72  92 /  20  50  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley