989
FXUS64 KOHX 130200 AAA
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
900 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, sky condition, and wind
direction/wind speed grids blending them with associated
previously forecasted hourly late evening gridded values.
Per analysis of current regional satellite imagery and latest
HRRR sky cover forecast through tonight, slightly decreased cloud
coverage tonight from generally partly cloudy skies to mostly
clear skies remainder of evening hours tonight. Current regional
temperature trends in line with forecasted overnight lows. KOHX
13/00Z Sounding showing despite warmup today, PWAT values are
still only 0.77 inch which is in the 10 percentile range for PWAT
values for today with riding influences surface and aloft
prevailing. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1026 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A surface ridge is aligned just south of the Ohio Valley this
morning, leaving Middle Tennessee with a dry, stable atmosphere.
The ridge will gradually slide across the region during the next
couple of days and we can expect summer-like heat to build over
the mid state as a result.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1026 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The forecast is rain-free through Sunday night. Of particular note
is Sunday, when afternoon temperatures are expected to top out
near 100 degrees, but we do expect enough moisture advection to
lead to additional cloudiness and low POP`s beginning on Monday,
and also slightly cooler temperatures. Perhaps "not as hot" would
be more accurate, as the 6-10 day and 8-14 outlooks continue to
favor above normal temperatures for Middle Tennessee. QPF totals
for days 6-8 (nothing prior to day 6) are coming in under 1/4"
across most of the mid state. So the rainy pattern that persisted
throughout May and the first week of June has definitely shifted.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions continue this taf cycle. Winds are light and
variable. IFR to LIFR fog will be possible overnight at SRB. Other
areas should remain fog-free as the air is still quite dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  92  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    58  88  64  91 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     59  85  64  87 /   0  10   0   0
Columbia       59  92  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     60  87  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      59  86  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   60  90  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   60  92  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        58  89  64  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Baggett