Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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883 FXUS64 KOHX 200540 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1240 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 822 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 All is quiet this evening with mostly clear skies and calm winds. Today`s 00Z sounding shows drier air across the area, especially near the surface where dewpoint depressions are about 15 degrees. Do think widespread dense fog is unlikely tonight with this drier air, but some patchy fog is still possible overnight, especially along the Plateau and along rivers. Otherwise, look for a beautiful Monday with dry conditions, mostly clear skies, and temperatures warming up into the upper-80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Warm day ahead. Late this morning, under plentiful sunshine, temperatures are already pushing through the 70s with a few lower 80s. Skies are mostly sunny and we will continue to warm well into the 80s. Upper ridge to move slowly across the mid state through Monday, with additional ridging moving in on Tuesday. This will keep us on the toasty side for mid May. 850 mb temps will edge upward a degree or so by Tuesday afternoon. Looks like upper 80s to near 90 for our upcoming highs. Overnight lows will generally remain in the 60s. Afternoon dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to near 60 so the heat index humidity factor looks close to zero effect. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 In the extended forecast, upper ridge will break down with a quasi zonal regime prevailing thereafter. A frontal boundary on Wednesday will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The boundary will stall out and weaken by Thursday, but will continue to serve as a initiator for further convection. A warm front will lift north by Saturday with another frontal system following on Sunday. Thus, shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up once again late in the extended period. As of any severe weather, nothing really jumps out synoptically. Instability levels do climb but look to be paired with weak shear and sketchy organizational levels. Currently, we are not outlooked but the day 4 is active to our west. This has to do with that mid week frontal system mentioned earlier. Again though, phasing is just fair to poor by the time the fropa occurs in our neck of the woods. Otherwise, rainfall amounts over the next 7 days look like just one to two inches, so not too bad. For the extended temperatures, looking warm Wednesday ahead of the boundary. Then, a 5f-8F cool down will follow. Mid to upper 80s will return for the weekend. Overnight lows look warm with mid to upper 60s expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Weak ridging will allow for clear skies and calm winds at all sites for most of the period. Light fog may cause visibilities at CSV and SRB to fall into MVFR territory in the early morning hours. Any fog should burn off quickly after sunrise. Winds will be light and out of the south and southwest throughout the day today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 66 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 87 65 88 67 / 0 0 0 10 Crossville 81 59 82 62 / 10 0 0 0 Columbia 87 64 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 83 62 84 64 / 10 0 0 0 Jamestown 82 60 84 63 / 10 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 85 64 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 87 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 87 66 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Clements SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....Whitehead