071
FXUS64 KOHX 030549
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1249 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

It`s a quiet evening with just a couple blips on the radar over
the plateau. Those should dissipate in the next hour. The story
tonight will be areas of fog. That fog will dissipate Monday
morning with a warm day ahead. The forecast is on track and no
major changes were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A much less active day with little in the way of convection noted.
Just a few isolated showers across our Plateau but that activity
should continue to decrease. This is all due to the flattening of
the shortwave overnight. In fact, we will see some upcoming ridging
into tonight and Monday. For tonight though, could see some fog
across our Plateau especially. Current tover values are around -3F
with neutral dewpoint trends expected from 00Z through 12Z. Will
double check the builder to see if there is any fog input.

The pattern will still remain mildly unsettled as another shortwave
moves in for Monday night and Tuesday. Instability will ramp up
pretty good across western TN on Tuesday afternoon. Furthermore 850
mb mags are around 30 Kts. There is a marginal generally west of the
MS river. I`d be surprised if thats not expanded eastward with time.
The associated surface boundary is virtually absent though so the
synoptic display is non-supportive. Otherwise, rainfall totals
though Tuesday night look like an inch far west to a half inch east.

For the short term temps, it will be on the warm side for early
June. That previously mentioned upper ridging could send our highs
into the upper 80s to near 90F on Monday and possibly Tuesday as
well. Overnight lows will be summer like with 65F to 70F for most
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

In the extended forecast, a more potent and better stacked system is
indicated for Wednesday. Looks like a sure fire marginal but nothing
out of spc yet. Following the mid week system, will cool off a
touch. It certainly looks calmer as some troughing digs along the
Atlantic coast. We could see some backside energy with a few
showers at times. However, the nbm only references 20 pops at
best. Total qpf amounts for the extended period only chime in at
around 1 inch across our Plateau(for the Wednesday activity
primarily), to just a quarter of an inch west.

For the extended temps, quite warm and muggy initially. We actually
see a secondary boundary push through on Thursday with some cooler
air behind it. Our highs will drop down to near 80F by next weekend.
Lows will drop to near 60F.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Upper level ridging will prevail across mid state thru 04/06Z.
VFR conditions expected unless otherwise noted.Some passing bkn CI
at times. Continued mention of periodic MVFR fog 03/09Z - 03/13Z
SRB/CSV with IFR ceilings possible. Initial calm conditions
SRB/CSV thru 03/14Z, then becoming light SW. For SRB/CSV,
addressedwind shift from prevailing SW backing back to SE
04/00Z-04/06Z. For CKV/BNA/MQY, light southerly winds will
prevail thru 04/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      90  70  87  71 /  20  20  50  40
Clarksville    88  68  85  70 /  20  30  60  50
Crossville     81  62  82  64 /  20  10  50  40
Columbia       88  68  86  69 /  20  30  50  40
Cookeville     83  65  84  67 /  10  10  40  40
Jamestown      82  62  84  65 /  10  10  40  40
Lawrenceburg   87  68  85  69 /  20  20  50  40
Murfreesboro   89  67  87  69 /  20  20  50  40
Waverly        89  68  86  69 /  30  30  60  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....JB Wright