Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
128 FXUS65 KPIH 230958 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 358 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... Low pressure centered right over the forecast area this AM will drift east toward the Plains today, resulting in cooler high temps only reaching the 40s and 50s, as well as additional rain/snow showers (and perhaps an isolated afternoon t-storm east of I-15). Several additional inches of snow are possible in Fremont County and the Big Holes, but impacts will continue to remain very limited due to marginal temps with the highest accumulations above pass level. It will remain a bit breezy, especially this AM and especially across Cassia County and the Raft River region. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY remains in effect for American Falls Reservoir through 3 PM...those looking to brave the cooler temps and head out on the reservoir will encounter calmer, safer conditions during the mid-late afternoon. Finally, a FROST ADVISORY remains in effect through 9 AM, and sfc obs have dropped into the 31-34 degree range across large portions of the advisory area, especially west of the I-15 corridor away from our larger population centers. A relative break between systems is still expected Fri along with warmer temps reaching the upper 50s to upper 60s during the afternoon, but a few isolated showers also can`t be ruled out during the afternoon along the MT border and in some of our mntn areas. Another FROST ADVISORY will likely be needed Fri AM. 01 .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY... Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms start off Memorial Day Weekend across East Idaho, along with another round of breezy to windy conditions. A few showers linger generally across the eastern highlands Sunday, but the trend is for drier and warmer conditions beginning Sunday and continuing through roughly Tuesday. Ensemble clusters are in very good agreement with position of the ridge, but strength varies among the clusters. Deterministic GFS and ECMWF try to hint at developing very weak isolated convection by Tuesday afternoon, but the NBM remains dry. A fast moving system brings a better chance of storms Wednesday. DMH && .AVIATION... Another round of showers and wind is forecast for East Idaho today as the center of a vigorous low pressure system slides through the region. Breezy winds continue for the Snake Plain KBYI/KPIH/KIDA terminals, peaking around 20kts sustained early this afternoon. Showers redevelop, mainly impacting KIDA/KDIJ today, with lesser chances at KPIH, and likely VCSH at KBYI/KSUN. KDIJ will be cold enough to experience MVFR -SN or -RASN into early afternoon, and will likely hold on to the showers the longest into early evening. An isolated thunderstorm is not out of the question. Winds decrease late this afternoon into the evening for all terminals. DMH && .FIRE WEATHER... The center of a vigorous late winter storm system rolls through East Idaho today with another round of showers and wind. Temperatures remain chilly, so showers today should start today with snow levels very close to valley floors, warming up slightly to about 7000 ft elevation. Winds remain gusty today, peaking between 25 and 30 mph in the Snake Plain late morning, then gradually decreasing through the day. Showers linger through the Caribou-Targhee early this evening, and a thunderstorm or two is not out of the question. Drier conditions are expected through Friday, though a few showers may still be possible along the Montana border Friday afternoon. The next system drives through Saturday, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. DMH && .HYDROLOGY... All FLOOD WARNINGS and FLOOD ADVISORIES have been cancelled along the Portneuf River. The river showed a slight response to rainfall Wed eve, but the overall downward trend should resume and hold for the next several days. 01 && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051>055. && $$