Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 071945
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
145 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...EMBEDDED WAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVING THROUGH
MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CELLS JUST DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND SUN
VALLEY. THIS WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO BRING A FEW CELLS
INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS EVENING. MODELS COULD HAVE DONE BETTER
WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARDS UTAH BUT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WAS CONTINUED FOR THAT AREA EARLY THIS EVENING ON THE CHANCE IT
DOES NOT MOVE ALL THE WAY OUT OF STATE. WEDNESDAY...FOCUS IS ON
THE LOW NEAR THE WEST COAST THAT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. A
CONVECTIVE BAND OFF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO ONE
INCH SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE WET SIDE WITH A QUARTER INCH
OR SO RAIN POSSIBLE WITH CELLS. LOW CONTINUES ACROSS CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY WITH SOME DRY AIR ENTERING SOUTHEAST IDAHO...TEMPERATURE
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONGER WINDS. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARDS MONTANA
FRIDAY...KEEPING AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN FORECAST AREA
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAY DRY OUT A LITTLE BY SUNDAY...BUT THE
LATEST GFS IS ALREADY HINTING AT SOME MONSOON MOISTURE CLIPPING
OUR AREA BY MONDAY. RS
&&

.AVIATION...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL IDAHO BY A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. TODAY...THIS
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -SHRA AND -TSRA WILL
BE THE RESULT...THOUGH LOWER IN COVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR...BUT OVERNIGHT LIGHT POCKETS OF -SHRA
SHOULD CONTINUE. UNLESS STRUCK DIRECTLY WITH A -TSRA...NO IMPACT TO
VSBYS OR CIGS. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AWAY FROM -TSRA. MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO AS IT BRINGS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD. THE LOW ITSELF IS STILL EXPECTED
TO MOVE ONSHORE IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THEN CURVE ITS TRAJECTORY
MORE NORTHWARD AND GO RIGHT THROUGH THE GEM STATE. THUS EXPECT
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND SOMETIMES SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATIC NORMALS...WHILE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOIST AIR WILL
BOTH HELP KEEP HUMIDITY RATHER HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO
SIGNIFICANT FRONT EXPECTED...BUT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW DURING THE
WEEKEND SHOULD BRING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND THE MOST UNSTABLE DAY
OF THE NEXT SEVEN. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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