Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 260855

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
255 AM MDT WED OCT 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night.
Upper ridge will provide dry weather today and Thursday with very
mild temperatures continuing with daytime highs approximately 10
to 15 degrees above seasonal normals for late October. The next
precipitation should move into the central mountains Thursday
night and overspread all of southeastern Idaho on Friday and
continue Friday night as the system moves northeast through the
region. Everyone could see a few tenths of precipiation with this
system with snow levels remaining very high in the 9 to 10
thousand foot level. With the precipitation expected on Friday
with the cloud cover should see about a 5 to 10 degree cooling
trend but temperatures still above normal. Expect an increase in
winds Thursday afternoon to the 15 to 20 mph sustained level in
the Snake River Plain and southern highlands.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday night. Models being a little
more in agreement with current run. Both GFS and ECMWF have similar
solutions for Sat...with a deep upper trof off the west coast
pushing precip into the mtns. The trof deepens Sat night and pushes
up the ridge over the Rockies. This keeps most of the precip over
the central mtns. As the upper trof moves into the Pac NW on
Sun...precip spreads across the fcst area thru Sun night. Upper
ridging over the Pac NW on Mon results in decreasing precip coverage
...but the ridge amplitude is not enough to completely dry out the
area. The ridge continues to build Mon night and Tue...with only a
few showers/snow showers in the central mtns. Another upper trof
moves into the Pac NW on Tue...but most of the energy appears to be
staying south.  Will see a few more showers Tue night...but mainly
in the mtns. Both models bring another trof thru the Pac NW on Wed.
The ECMWF is faster and more north than the with either
solution will see an increase in precip coverage mainly in the mtns
Wed night. Hedges &&

.AVIATION...Upper ridging today will bring an end to the wet period.
Patchy fog in the Snake River Plain early this morning should be
gone by sunrise. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail. Hedges


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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