Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 211029
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
329 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH SNOW
LEVELS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET AT 3 AM. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND 7000 TO 7500 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AGAIN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. EXPECT STRONG
WINDS THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FOR 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS EVE/ THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS BACK
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.
RIDGE CHRISTMAS EVE BREAKS DOWN QUICKLY AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SYSTEM
DROPPING THROUGH THE PACNW. MODELS SIMILAR AGAIN WITH TIMING OF
FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT CHRISTMAS EVE...AND BOTH GUIDANCE AND 850MB WET
BULBS FAVOR SNOW REACHING VALLEY FLOORS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OPERATIONAL GFS DRIER THAN PARALLEL GFS/ECMWF. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH CHANCE
POPS LOWER ELEVATIONS. MAINTAINED COLDER TEMPS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE
AND THUS CURRENT QPF ESTIMATES RESULT IN AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW
AT ALL ELEVATIONS. AS CHRISTMAS TROUGH SAGS INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS...RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY BUT MODELS RAPIDLY
LOSE FOCUS AND GET OUT OF PHASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
KEPT WEAK POPS MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EAST
IDAHO THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO ABOUT 5000
FT...LEADING TO A WET SNOWFALL AT KIDA THIS MORNING. VIS/CEILINGS
REMAIN A BROAD MIX ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR/LIFR WHERE SNOW FALLING
AND VFR/MVFR WHERE RAIN FALLING. PRECIPITATION WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN INCREASE IN WINDS PARTICULARLY FOR SNAKE PLAIN TERMINALS
KBYI/KPIH/KIDA. IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST MVFR EXPECTED AT KSUN BY
EVENING. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ESPECIALLY FOR KIDA/KPIH
TO KEEP A CONCERN FOR STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUESTIONABLE LATELY WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT RECENT MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH SOME CLEARING ALOFT LEND SOME STRENGTH TO THE IDEA. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR
THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY IDZ018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR
THE IDZ019-025.

&&

$$






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