Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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363
FXUS65 KPIH 261924
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
124 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. The ridge continues to
build across the west. That means hot and mostly dry conditions
for eastern Idaho. A storm clips the central mountains tomorrow
night and Tuesday, which MAY kick off a few thunderstorms over
the central mountains and along the Divide. Right now, it`s hard
to say if they will happen or if all of the models are overzealous
due to the warm temperatures. We did include isolated storms in
the event something does develop. Even if they don`t, there will
be at least some afternoon and evening clouds in that area. Keyes

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday. Both GFS and ECMWF in
agreement with the upper ridge over the Great Basin/norther Rockies
moving east toward the end of the week. This is in response to an
upper trof moving into the Pac NW on Thu. This pattern establishes
sw flow aloft and allows for limited subtropical moisture to flow
into ID. The result is for a chance of afternoon and evening tstms
beginning Thu and continuing through the weekend. The best chances
will be in the mtns...as usual. The increasing moisture...along with
a corresponding increase in cloud cover should shave a couple of
degrees off the max temps for the end of the week. Hedges

&&

.AVIATION...VFR weather continues over the next 24 hours. We
should see some afternoon clouds and MAYBE a storm across the
peaks of the central mountains tomorrow. However, nothing would
affect KSUN.  Keyes


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will equate to hot and mostly dry
conditions across central and eastern Idaho through midweek. A
storm clips the central mountains tomorrow night and Tuesday,
which COULD kick off isolated dry storms each afternoon and
evening across portions of the central mountains and along the
Divide toward Yellowstone. We say could because sometimes the
models do get overzealous and produce storms when it`s nothing
more than afternoon/evening clouds. Isolated storms are possible
again Wednesday mainly along the Divide. Monsoon moisture rotates
through and around the ridge for the end of the workweek. There
are still some subtle differences on just how much we will see
and the amount of storm coverage, mainly due to the models
bouncing around on what to do as the next storm moves inland. Even
with those differences, it does appear we will an increase in
thunderstorms with the initial round(s) being dry vs wet storms.
We saw thermal belt conditions last night in the mountains and
expect those to increase through midweek at least. Keyes

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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