Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 241025
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
325 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH IN THAT REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXTENSIVE PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS AND EXPECTING MAINLY 4 TO 8 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. EXPECT SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL ELEVATE TO THE 5 TO 6
THOUSAND FOOT LEVEL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY MAKING PRECIPITATION
MOST LIKELY RAIN IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PROGRESSES EAST. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
WARMING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
GK

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH MONDAY. MED RANGE MODELS IN
BEST AGREEMENT SO FAR THIS SET OF SHIFTS. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN THANKSGIVING DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD TROUGH
TRYING TO SAG SOUTH PAST THE CANADIAN BORDER. MOISTURE STREAM
THROUGH PACNW STILL TARGETING PANHANDLE/AREAS ALONG DIVIDE SO NUDGED
POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO FRIDAY. MAIN FEATURE SAGS ACROSS
EAST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH BOTH GFS/EC PAINTING MAINLY
OROGRAPHIC PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC COLD SAGS TO THE DIVIDE
BUT DOESNT APPEAR TO MAKE IT ACROSS INTO EAST IDAHO SO TEMPS STAY ON
THE WARM SIDE. DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP STICKS AROUND THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY THEN SHIFTS NORTH AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES THROUGH GREAT BASIN
AHEAD OF NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. TEMPS WARM UNDER INFLUENCE OF RISING
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND/EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT BUT TEMPS REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERALL WILL KEEP SOME HOLIDAY
TRAVEL CONCERNS FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IF CURRENT SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE. MUCH WETTER
START TO NEXT WEEK. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVING THROUGH EAST IDAHO REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EASTERN HIGHLANDS
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN EASE THROUGH THE DAY.
NEXT SHORTWAVE FEATURE DROPS OUT OF PACNW TONIGHT WITH SNOW PUSHING
INTO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. KSUN LIKELY TO SEE SNOW AFTER 06Z
SPREADING INTO SNAKE PLAIN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER
FEATURE. WILL KEEP SNAKE PLAIN TERMINALS VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
RETURN STRONGER WINDS AFTER 06Z. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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