Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 241928
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
128 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER
THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT INITIALLY IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND STANLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS. COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND ON SUNDAY THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER ON SUNDAY AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY TO AROUND 6500 FEET.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS WELL...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME. LOCATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A FEW RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI NIGHT. AFTER NEARLY A WEEK
OF SOMETIMES TOTAL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE SUITES...THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE LIKELY NEVER LOOKED MORE SIMILAR IN THE AUTUMN THAN
THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS. VERY STRONG AGREEMENT THE THE NEXT MAJOR
TROUGH ARRIVES TUE NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS IS THE
BIGGEST STORM OF THE WEEK...BUT NOT THE COLDEST WITH SNOW LEVELS
STAYING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH LITTLE RISK OF SNOW IN HEAVILY
POPULATED ELEVATIONS. THE TROUGH WILL BE BRINGING LEFTOVER TROPICAL
AIRMASS FROM TROPICAL STORM ANA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD IN SPITE
OF THE CLOUD COVER. THIS STORM WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY SERIOUS WIND EVENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THU THAT STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND THE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. UNLIMITED CIGS AND VSBYS WITH LIGHT WIND AT ALL AIRDROMES.
MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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