Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 310921
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
321 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
EVENTFUL FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
TODAY WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM
MOVES ON SHORE SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN IDAHO
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY AND EVEN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS IN
THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SEEM TO HANG ONTO THE WARM AIR
LONGER AND SNOW LEVELS START OUT VERY HIGH ON SATURDAY AND THE
LATEST NAM MODEL HAS BACKED OFF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONSIDERABLY.
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING WINTER STORM WATCH IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DUE TO POSSIBLE DELAY IN ONSET OF COLD AIR AND SLOWER DROP IN SNOW
LEVELS. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION FROM NOON TO 6 PM
SATURDAY WITH THE REALLY COLD AIR DELAYING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS MAY STILL DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW IN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HIGHS
TEMPERATURES IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL TREND DOWN FROM AROUND 70
TODAY TO 60 SATURDAY TO LOW 40S SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GENERALLY EXPECT 3 TO 6 INCHES IN HIGH MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS FROM THIS STORM WITH MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WITH A TRANSITION FROM STRONG WINDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AND SNOW SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
GK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING OFF
THE PACIFIC INTO OREGON AND INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE FOR MUCH OF
THIS TIME. THE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OR JUST
TOUCHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL POUR THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SHOWERS
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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