Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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757 FXUS65 KPSR 291711 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1011 AM MST Wed May 29 2024 .UPDATE...Updated 18z Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry and tranquil weather conditions will persist through at least the weekend, but expect continued above normal temperatures as high pressure generally dominates across the region. High temperatures each day across the lower deserts will run around five degrees above normal with readings between 100 and 105 degrees under sunny to mostly sunny skies. && .DISCUSSION... The weather pattern through the weekend will keep dry zonal westerly flow over the Desert Southwest with influences from the sub-tropical ridge which will remain positioned to our south. This will result in H5 heights remaining fairly stable at between 582-585dm, still within the normal range for this time of year, but high enough to keep temperatures around five degrees above normal. Lower desert forecast highs are mostly between 100-105 degrees through around next Monday or Tuesday before higher model spread is seen in the NBM. Overall weak flow across the region will keep daily winds fairly light with periodic afternoon wind gusts around 20 mph. Model uncertainty increases by the middle of next week leading to lower forecast confidence as ensemble guidance indicates a potential weak cut-off low developing somewhere off the coast of southern California or northern Baja. At the same time, a stronger upper level ridge is likely to push its way inland over the Great Basin while the sub-tropical ridge over Mexico strengthens and likely pushes northward into Texas and New Mexico. So far ensemble guidance overall agrees with the ridging strengthening over much of the Western U.S. later next week, but the cut-off low`s position and strength is highly uncertain. Even if the low is close to our region, it will likely have little influence on our overall sensible weather as any quality moisture should stay well east of Arizona. NBM forecast temperature spread increases a good deal by the middle of next week, but the overall temperature range still trends upward through the rest of the week as mean H5 heights are favored to push closer to 590dm. So far it looks very possible some lower deserts may be flirting with 110 degrees at some point late next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1715Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT: Winds will follow their typical diurnal patterns with some extended periods of light and variable winds. Wind speeds will generally be aob 10 kt through the TAF period, however, some periodic gusts into the teens will be possible once again this afternoon. Mostly clear skies will prevail, except for a few high clouds through this afternoon. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: At KIPL, winds will mainly be out of the west through the TAF period whereas at KBLH winds will be out of the south to southwest. Gusts into the mid 20s are expected to develop again this evening at KIPL. At KBLH, wind speeds will be aob 10 kt sustained through the TAF period, with the potential for occasional gusts into the mid to upper teens this afternoon. Clear skies will prevail. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry conditions will persist into next week with daily highs around 5 degrees above normal. MinRH values will remain at or below 10% across the lower deserts and overnight recoveries will commonly be poor at around 20-40%. Winds through the period are generally expected to remain fairly light, but daytime breeziness with gusts around 20 mph can be expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Whittock/Frieders FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman