Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 042120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOST LOWER DESERT LOCALES WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WAS A FEW CUMULOFORM CLOUDS MAINLY EAST OF
PHOENIX. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 21Z WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F
WARMER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. DEWPOINTS VALID 21Z WERE NEARLY 10-15
DEGS F LOWER VERSUS THIS TIME TUE. GUSTY NLY WINDS WERE ALSO
PREVALENT ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SWWD
INTO SE ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SE OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THUR-FRI WILL GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN CALIFORNIA...AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER NWRN SONORA/NRN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES OR PERHAPS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH THE BULK OF CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT GUSTY NLY/NELY WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A SOMEWHAT TIGHT MID-LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

THE UPPER LOW IS DEPICTED VIA THE 04/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO EJECT NEWD
INTO SE ARIZONA SAT. THE NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHOWERS
PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR JUST EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS WAS MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THIS
SCENARIO. AT ANY RATE...HAVE MAINTAINED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SAT WITH
THE EXPECTATION FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OR EVEN VIRGA...TO
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS ADJACENT THE WEST COAST SUN-MON IS PROGGED VIA THE
04/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO MOVE EWD INTO THE SWRN CONUS TUE. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO FLATTEN NEXT WED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OR PERHAPS EVEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY WED AS MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE AREA.

A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THUR-MON FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS TUE-WED. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80 F ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS THIS WEEKEND...AND HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S FOR
SOME LOCALES BY TUE. DAYTIME TEMPS FOR THE PHOENIX METRO AREA WILL
BE NEARLY 7-9 DEGS OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 4-6K FT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...
THEN CLEAR SKIES/SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. GENERALLY
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE SURFACE WIND FLOW
SWITCHING TO A EAST/NORTHEAST DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. EAST/NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND AT 6-12 KTS THURSDAY. STRONGER
EAST/NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE THE ONLY
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE SURFACE WINDS
DIMINISH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES/SKC CONDITIONS. NORTH/NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AT BOTH KIPL AND KBLH...WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 5-10 KTS RANGE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE EAST/NORTHEAST AND ELEVATED AT 10-18 MPH...WITH
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS
WESTWARD AT 8-15 MPH. MORE TYPICAL WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN PREVAIL
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION...GZ
FIRE WEATHER...GZ




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