Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 242051
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
155 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM A STREAM OF CIRRUS STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...THE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND HAS MOVED OFF ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS. WINDS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER TODAY WITH A
PRONOUNCED INVERSION THIS MORNING IN PHOENIX...AS SMOKE AND HAZE WAS
EVIDENTLY TRAPPED IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STEADILY BUILDING IN STRENGTH OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK...AND A STRONG JET MAX WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA CREATING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AT
RIDGETOPS AND HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ARIZONA. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE
FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY FLATTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES AND
SHARP RISING HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
TOP OUT 10-12 DEGREES HIGHER BY THURSDAY WHEN THE RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
TREK TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SIMILAR IN NATURE TO THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
ARIZONA...THIS ONE WILL DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. IN CONTRAST
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLIGHT CHANCE POP VALUES FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...STRONG SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGIONS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE PHOENIX METRO
AREA THIS EVENING...PRODUCING LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT ALL OF THE PHX
AREA TERMINALS FROM THIS EVENING ON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE LIGHT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION.

&&

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE NOW BEING OBSERVED AT KBLH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION. WINDS AT KIPL TO
REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWING
THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK THURSDAY WITH WARMER
DESERTS RISING INTO THE LOW 80S. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH A SUBTLE COOLING TREND ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT...THEN THEY WILL RISE SEVERAL PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND
RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR
TO GOOD...SLOWLY IMPROVING EACH NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS
REACHING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE EACH DAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CB







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