Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 222138
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
238 PM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME MOUNTAIN CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS. VERY LIGHT HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA THAT
WILL SPILL OVER INTO ARIZONA BUT WILL NOT POSE AN IMPACT TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS PHOENIX. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE...A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. RISING HEIGHTS STEADY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...2-4 DM EACH DAY...AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OVER 590MB HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW A STEADY WARMING OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY BY FRIDAY.

MODEL CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO GET BETTER BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
REGARDING THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST. INCREASE IN MOISTURE VALUES JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN OREGON...WITH PWAT VALUES
AS OBSERVED BY SATELLITE READING AROUND 1.5 INCHES...IS UPWARDS OF
190 PERCENT OF NORMAL. QUITE A STRONG...COLD...AND MOIST TROUGH
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND COOLING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST...BUT ON A SMALLER SCALE AS THE
STRONGEST IMPACT AREA FOR THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH.
MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL FALLING HEIGHTS ON THE
ORDER OF 10-12 DM BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO 3-5 DM
OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND COMPARED WITH WHAT WE WILL SEE LATE THIS
WEEK...NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW THIS WEEK`S FORECAST BUT ONLY
MEASURING UP AT SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. AS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD...BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL
IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. A MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRETTY
HIGH LCL HEIGHT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PERSIST. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PAST 2
DAYS...WITH CONTINUED PROLONGED PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR LATER THIS WEEK...

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
OCT 24      96 IN 2007
OCT 25      96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE DISTRICT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WILL
PREVAIL. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 PERCENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER VALUES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. AFTERNOON WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EXPERIENCED THE PAST
WEEK...WITH MORE FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO







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