Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 222322
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY MILD AFTERNOON UNDERWAY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS...WITH AREAS OF HIGH CIRRUS DRIFTING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES CRESTING INTO THE 70S FOR
PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT EXPECT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HIGH CIRRUS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
OTHERWISE DRY N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE PASSING CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS...MOSTLY ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...EXPECT A MILD NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES MOSTLY AT OR A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...TRAILING OFF THE PARENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TODAY...WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS FOR SUNDAY. ONE EFFECT
OF THIS BRUSH PASS WILL BE ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. AN ALREADY
DRY AIRMASS...AREA SOUNDINGS SAMPLING 0.40 INCH OR DRIER PWATS...WILL
DRY FURTHER WITH PWATS DROPPING SOLIDLY BELOW 0.25 INCHES OR DRIER.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE FROM THE 20 TO 30F READINGS
IN THE MORNING DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND/OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WESTERN DESERTS...PARTICULARLY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. PERIOD FOR STRONGEST WINDS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO CENTER AROUND 23/18Z OR 11 AM
MST/10 AM PST WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING BACK IN THEIR SPEEDS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST VALUES STILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...AN ISOLATED HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS WELL AS CONCERNS
FOR POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY.

THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH ONLY THIN
CIRRUS OVER TERMINALS. VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND IN MANY
INSTANCE CALM OR VARIABLE...SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED.
HOWEVER...PEAK SPEEDS OR GUSTS AOA 12KT WOULD BE BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS...PARTICULARLY AT KBLH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING BRINGING
STRONG GUSTS TO THE SFC. WHILE KIPL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
20KT...KBLH WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25KT...AND POSSIBLY REACH
CLOSE TO 35KT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 18Z. GUSTS SHOULD START TO
ABATE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRUSH PASS
THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE AREA...WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER
READINGS. SOME OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCALES COULD SEE 80F
READINGS OR WARMER BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/CB
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ





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