Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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000 FXUS65 KPSR 230216 AFDPSR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 715 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS... MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH WARMER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX... YUMA AND EL CENTRO. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DROPPING BACK SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND BREEZINESS. && .DISCUSSION... NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ / THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...CULMINATING IN STRONG BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THANKSGIVING DAY. AN UPWARD SPIKE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENT FORECASTS OF DRY UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THIS WEEK LOOKS OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS IN THIS FLOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. IN FACT...BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY FROM JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK EAST TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR THE FORECAST FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...AND IN COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN FLAGSTAFF AND TUCSON...HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. THAT FORECAST SHOWS TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS. ALSO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. AS USUAL...THE FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INCREASES. && .AVIATION... SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL... KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE ABOVE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z TUE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR DIRECTIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER WILL DO AFTER FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTS REFLECT CONSERVATIVE TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK SOMEWHAT AND SOME INCREASE IN WIND. AS USUAL...FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INCREASES. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/ELLIS AVIATION...VASQUEZ FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS/AJ
