Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 072209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
309 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

CAUGHT IN THE DOLDRUMS THIS WEEK. A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN FACT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BELOW 5K FT
ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO WED...THU...AND FRI. NEEDLESS
TO SAY THIS ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD VALUES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON THE DESERTS VICINITY PHOENIX...
PARTICULARLY WED.

ON A SIDE NOTE...WE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A
GROWING DISTURBANCE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO LOCATED
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE FLARED UP IN THIS REGION...FIRST TRIGGERED BY AN
EASTWARD MOVING GRAVITY WAVE...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY BY INCREASING
DIFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. UNFORTUNATELY THE INCREASING SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM AND MOISTURE PLUME FLOWING TOWARD FAR SOUTHERN BAJA WILL
STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AZ...BLOCKED BY THE ANOMALOUS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM/RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

NEXT WEEKEND...

THIS FAR OUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL FORECASTS WITH RESPECT
TO SOME COOLING...OR NOT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN
WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH. WE SORT OF AGREE WITH THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS OF MORE ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
FALLS IN AZ THAN THE GFS MODEL.  A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS DUE TO A LARGE COLD BLOCKING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN U.S...CENTERED OVER HUDSONS BAY CANADA...WHICH SHOULD DIG
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...ALBEIT STILL DRY. THE
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN OUR FORECASTS NEXT WEEKEND REFLECT THE
PREMISE ABOVE.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...OCCASIONALLY NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS MORE DISTINCTLY
NORTHERLY OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WINDS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY NORTHEAST. AS
THE INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITHIN 1-2 KFT AGL WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KTS...FLIRTING
WITH LLWS CRITERIA AT TIMES IN SOME SPOTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. NO
CLOUDS OF NOTE JUST SOME MINOR CIRRUS PASSING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL
SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80
DEGREE MARK. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE
DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER
RIDGETOPS AND GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE


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