Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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242 FXUS65 KPSR 271020 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 320 AM MST Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hotter temperatures are expected across the lower deserts today with highs peaking in the high 90s to lower 100s, or around 5 degrees above average. Hot and dry conditions will persist through the rest of this week with very little day-to-day variability in temperatures. Skies will remain mostly clear and winds should remain light overall with the exception of typical afternoon breezes. && .DISCUSSION... Latest IR WV imagery reveals a low amplitude ridge centered over the western CONUS. This ridging pattern will continue to build today with 500 mb hghts rising to around 583-585 dam over southeast CA and southcentral AZ. In response, warmer temperatures are anticipated with highs reaching the upper 90s to around 103 degrees across the lower deserts. We will also begin to see isolated pockets of moderate HeatRisk develop in southeast CA this afternoon. Make sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade if you have any outdoor plans for Memorial Day. Another tranquil night is anticipated across the area with lows settling into the mid 60s to lower 70s. On Tuesday, the aforementioned ridge over the western U.S. will become more amplified as a shortwave trough moves into the Pac NW. Hght anomalies over the forecast area will increase further with highs solidly into the triple digits and possibly the first 105 degree day for the Phoenix Metro. Chances of 105+ degrees remain around 30-70% across the lower deserts on Tuesday afternoon. Moderate HeatRisk will also expand in coverage (20-40% in southcentral AZ and 50% in southeast CA). Ensemble members are still in good agreement that a shortwave trough will pass through the Intermountain West on Wednesday. However, the positioning of this trough looks to be too far north to provide any noticeable cooling across the Desert Southwest. In fact, hght anomalies will still remain above average heading through mid- week which will keep temperatures mainly in the triple digits across the lower deserts from Wednesday onwards. There could be a slight uptick in breeziness each afternoon, but overall wind gusts are expected to remain below 25 mph with the exception of western Imperial County where gusts could reach as high as 35 mph Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Heading into this weekend, 500 mb cluster analysis is indicating positive hght anomalies building back over the region as ridging aloft strengthens over N Mexico. This increase in mid-lvl hghts/thickness suggest that temperatures will continue to remain above average. Both Saturday and Sunday look to be hot with highs mainly in the 100-105 degree range across the lower deserts. There are indications in some of the global models that ridging will become even more enhanced by the beginning of next week which could result in even hotter temperatures. Latest NBM 75th percentile highs in Phoenix are 107F Tuesday and 111F Wednesday next week. This will certainly be something to keep an eye on in the coming days. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0515Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are expected through the TAF period. Winds will continue to exhibit the typical diurnal tendencies with speeds generally remaining under 10 kts, although a few occasional gusts into the mid-teens cannot be ruled out once again on Monday afternoon. Skies will remain clear through tonight before a FEW passing high clouds move through the region during the day on Monday. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period. At KIPL, winds are expected to remain out of the west through the overnight before switching out of the southeast by early Monday morning. Wind are expected to shift out of the west once again early Monday evening. At KBLH, winds will generally prevail out of the south to south-southwest. Speeds will generally remain light aob 10 kts, although gusts near 20 kts are likely at KIPL for a period on Monday evening. Skies will remain clear through tonight before some passing high clouds move through the region Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry conditions will persist through this week with temperatures topping out around 5 degrees above average. Daily highs will reach the century mark in most lower desert locations beginning today with widespread readings between 100-105 persisting through the remainder of the week. MinRH values will be 10% or less across the central and western deserts each afternoon and overnight recoveries will continue to range from poor to fair at around 25- 40%. Winds are expected to generally remain below 15 mph, but a bump in breeziness could result in pockets of elevated fire weather concerns by the middle of this week (peaking on Wednesday). && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Salerno AVIATION...Lojero FIRE WEATHER...Young/Salerno