Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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281 FXUS65 KPUB 121127 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 527 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and drier today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. - Record to near record high temperatures Thursday - Strong to near severe thunderstorm chances increase into Friday across northern portions of the southeast plains with gusty outflow winds over 60 mph the primary storm risk. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Today... An upper level low positioned off the coast of California will help to advect up some mid-level moisture later today. Meanwhile, there will also be some weak troughing to the north with westerly flow in the mid to upper levels that will interact with the mid-level moisture and help to aid in the development of convection by later this afternoon over the higher terrain with orographic lift as the forcing. These showers and isolated thunderstorms are not expected to become very strong, given the lack of CAPE and shear over the region. Still, they could provide some gusty outflow winds as any showers and storms that do develop will be high based. Isolated showers and storms will likely remain over the mountains, but then weaken as they come off over into the adjacent plains and lose orographic support. A shower or weak storm will still be possible over the plains, more than likely over El Paso County, otherwise the plains should remain dry with only some passing mid to high level clouds. Downsloping winds will also allow for temperatures to warm quite significantly over the lower elevations, and downright hot for the plains (especially within the lower Arkansas River Valley), which some localities could reach the 100 degree mark. Tonight... A hot day will lead to a mild night. Mostly clear skies and light winds will help to cool temperatures a bit more, although it will only drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s for a majority of the plains. For high country, temperatures will likely fall into the 40s for most locations. -Stewey && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Ridging continues over the area on Thursday with very hot temperatures expected. Record high temperatures will be challenged as warm to +18 to +19C. Record on Thursday are: KCOS: 95 in 2022 KPUB: 102 in 2022 KALS: 90 in 2021 A frontal boundary drops to near or just north the Palmer Divide with a narrow axis of higher dew points increasing 40s to near 50 by afternoon. How far south this boundary drops could mean the potential for an isolated strong storm across northern portions of the southeast plains (Palmer Divide and Kiowa county). Latest NAMNest has bumped this axis just north of our area with HREF mean Cape values 500 J/kg or less across the CWA. Earlier runs did show higher moisture/CAPE, so will need to monitor trends as we get closer. Gusty outflow winds in excess of 60 mph would be the primary risk given high DCAPE values, however some severe hail could also occur if dew point return is sufficient as deep layer shears to the north of the boundary could exceed 30 kts given the low level easterly flow beneath modest westerly flow aloft under the northern periphery of the upper high. Thunderstorms drop southeastward and diminish by midnight. An upper trough will move across the area Friday and Friday night. The boundary pushes southward into southeast CO Thursday night likely aided by outflow from thunderstorms across northeast/east central CO. Initially this will increase dew points into the 50s across the southeast plains before southwesterly flow aloft on Friday mixes dew points eastward again in the afternoon. While the incoming system brings in Pacific moisture and elevated CAPE across western areas, the question will be how far east will dew points mix out across the plains and what will the resultant CAPE be east of the dry line/surface trough axis. Think main risk Friday will be gusty outflow winds 60-70 mph given probability for some high DCAPE values. However hail isn`t out of the question for the high country as cooling aloft helps to steepen lapse rates as well. Across the far east plains, large hail also can`t be ruled out depending on position of the dry line/moisture axis. Overall, shear values look to stay low across southern CO in the 20-25 kt range which leans main risks more towards the gusty outflow wind scenario unless surface winds can stay more southeasterly. Thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours as the upper trough moves slowly eastward across the state, though storm strengths should come down with loss of heating. Friday cools off a few degrees though westerly surface winds should still yield some mid to upper 90s across the plains before the convective cloud cover/outflows dominate the late afternoon through evening period. After a slight cool down for Saturday temperatures soar again to around the century mark across the plains as southwesterly flow increases once again into early next week. Critical fire weather conditions will ramp up as breezy southwest winds mix down in the afternoon both Sunday and Monday. GFS is faster with taking the next trough across northern CO on Tue sending a cold front southward into the southeast plains on Tue. EC is slower, less amplified and farther north with the system, which keeps dry southwest flow across the area until the front approaching northern portions of the plains late Tue. This would spell another hot and breezy day. Will need to monitor fuels status closely given the hot and dry trend in the extended. For now fuels are not deemed critical given the greenup. -KT && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 526 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be generally light (mostly less than 10 kts) and primarily influenced by diurnal effects at all terminals, with only some gusty winds out of the WSW for KALS during the afternoon hours. There is very low confidence of VCSH/SHRA and possible VCTS/-TSRA at all stations this afternoon. If SHRA/TSRA does occur, it could temporarily reduce CIGs and VIS to MVFR/IFR criteria. It could also result in periodic windshifts and increased wind speeds for all terminals. -Stewey && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...STEWARD LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...STEWARD