Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
920 FXUS63 KSGF 081722 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing early morning thunderstorms will pose a gusty wind and localized flooding threat as they move east over the next few hours. - Additional chances for strong to severe storms late this afternoon into tonight. Large hail to the size of ping pong balls, 60 mph winds, and a conditional tornado threat are possible with these storms, though main concern will be potential of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding with locally 5-7 inches of rain. - A cooler than average start to next week with highs Monday and Tuesday in the middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Busy morning with ongoing convection, so will keep this short, sweet, and to the point. Ongoing early morning convection will pose a marginal wind threat, mainly up to 50 mph, and a localized flood threat as it progresses eastward. Attention then turns to this afternoon and evening, then into Sunday morning. This afternoon/evening: Shortwave ridging should bring a break in precip and allow for temperatures to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s (heat index values of 90-100). This should result in an area of 3,500-4,500 J/kg of MLCAPE late this afternoon into the evening, with deep layer shear values of 35-50 kts. Initial isolated to scattered convection is expected to develop on the left over boundary from morning storms, but exactly where that is remains somewhat in question and poorly handled by models. Supercells with ping pong size hail, 60 mph winds, and a conditional tornado threat are possible. The hail size may need to be increased in later updates. The tornado threat is small (agree with SPC 2%) and conditional based on ideal interactions with the left over boundary. Tonight into Sunday morning: Additional clusters to storms are expected tonight into Sunday morning, which will tend to become linear pretty quickly. Main risks are hail up to half dollar size, 60 mph winds, and perhaps a weak tornado. The The storms should train along the boundary, wherever that hangs up, resulting a corridor of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Depending on how much storms train, considerable flash flooding may result. HREF LPMM data shows pockets of 5-7 inches of rain, which is what we are messaging from localized higher end amounts. There is likely to be a sharp cutoff, or at least reduction, in precip to the southwest, but without being able to pinpoint where the boundary will hang up, we can`t say where that will be. Therefore, have included the entire area in a Flood Watch from this evening through early Sunday afternoon. WPC has issued a moderate day 1 excessive rainfall outlook. All this to say that flooding continues to be the greatest, and potentially significant, overall concern for tonight into Sunday morning. Rain looks to diminish during the day Sunday, with highs in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Not much to discuss in the long term. Overall look for highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Monday and Tuesday, increasing to the upper 80s by Thursday and Friday. Could see some light rain chances Sunday night into Monday, then again Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 For the 18z TAFS, increasing afternoon instability and a nearly stationary front draped across the area will be the focus for potentially late afternoon convection and more likely evening and overnight convection across the area. Very heavy rainfall is expected with the thunderstorms given the high moisture content in the atmosphere. MVFR and IFR conditions will be possible with the convection which will be most likely after 01z this evening. Clearing will then take place by mid to late morning on Sunday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday afternoon for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday afternoon for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Lindenberg