Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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130 FXUS63 KSGF 011913 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Residual flooding continues from heavy rain yesterday. - Patchy areas of dense fog tonight. - Warm and muggy summer-like pattern Sunday into midweek with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. - A pattern change for the latter portion of the week looks to bring drier conditions. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show westerly flow across most of the area west of the Mississippi river with a couple of embedded shortwaves. The first was currently pushing through eastern Missouri with another over Minnesota. Another shortwave was shifting east across Nevada. At the surface, a cold front was shifting east of the area with scattered showers ahead of the front over eastern Missouri into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. High pressure was moving into the area behind the front. Extensive cloud cover was over the area and was keeping temperatures cooler today. Readings werein the low to mid 70s with dew points in the low to mid 60s. Ongoing flooding: There were areas of significant precipitation over south central Missouri in the 4 to 7 inch range which had brought river levels into flooding with some areas into moderate to significant flooding. Several low water crossings remain flooded with road closures. Areal flood warnings and river flood warnings continue into this evening. Tonight: Dry conditions are expected tonight with surface high pressure over the area. The clouds will diminish this evening with a light and variable wind which may lead to some fog development. The most favorable areas for lower visiibilities overnight look to be from around Branson up to the Lake of the Ozarks and Rolla. We have some visiibility dropping down to aorund a mile, however patchy areas of dense fog will be possible. Lows tonight should dip into the upper 50s in south central Missouri and the low to mid 60s over western Missouri and southeast Kansas. Sunday: Some showers and thunderstorms may work into western Missouri and southeast Kansas on Sunday morning in a decaying phase from convection in the plains tonight. Some redevelopment will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours with mainly scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Daily showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the first half of the upcoming work week. Some showers and thunderstorms will be moving into western portions of the area Monday morning from the northwest from convection that develops in the plains on Sunday. Upper level shortwave energy and a good fetch of Gulf moisture with PW values in the 1.3 to 1.6" range during the first part of the week will lend to the potential of additional heavy rain and a marginal risk of excessive rain on Monday. In addition to the heavy rain risk, there is also a chance for some of the stronger storms to produce a marginal risk of severe weather(level 1 of 5) with hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph. The main shortwave will push through on Wednesday, with some drying occurring behind the front with a pattern change to a more northwesterly flow over the area late in the week. This will bring better chances for dry conditions from late Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A cold front has pushed east of the area with showers occurring along and ahead of the front. A large area of cumulus was occurring behind the front with ceilings improving into MVFR and VFR conditions. Sky should clear out with a light and variable wind this evening and we may see some fog develop at BBG late this evening and overnight. For now have dropped visibility down to 1 sm from around 8z until 12z. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg