994
FXUS64 KSHV 270323
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1023 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The leading edge of a slowly advancing cold front continues to
inch its way into the extreme NW portions of our region across
northern McCurtain County this evening. Excessive moisture pooling
ahead of the front is noted with dew points in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. In addition, strong instability still persists this
late into the evening. Forcing is weak, however, and is largely
limited to the sfc frontal boundary. With that said, radar trends
over the past hour are obviously indicating an uptick in activity
just ahead of the front so have expanded PoPs farther NW along the
I-30 corridor to account for these trends. Although a few strong
to isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out, this threat should
remain rather low through the remainder of this evening/overnight.
Beyond the minor forecast changes already mentioned, the remainder
of the forecast is on track. Updated text products have been sent.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

As expected, SSW winds have increased across the Wrn sections of
the region, in response to the tight pressure gradient present
ahead of a sfc low over SE KS/SW MO. In fact, winds have gusted to
near 30kts especially over portions of E TX, and thus, have
maintained the Wind Advisory in effect for much of E TX/SE
OK/Miller County AR, and extreme NW LA. But despite the low level
moisture advection ahead of the dryline which has mixed E into NW
AR/SE OK/N TX, temps and the attendant heat indices have yet to
reach Heat Advisory criteria across the region as of 1930Z, but
have opted to leave the Advisory as is until its 00Z expiration as
some localized areas may still near criteria on this holiday
weekend.

The afternoon water vapor imagery indicates the our shortwave
trough over has nudged E into Wrn OK/WCntrl TX, and should help
reinforce the dryline/weak cool front farther E into NE TX/SW AR
this evening before becoming stationary (for the time being) along
the AR/LA border late. A few of the various CAMs continue to
suggest that isolated convection may develop this evening along
this front, despite the shallow low level moisture in place.
Should the moisture/forcing be sufficient enough, strong SBCapes
and steep mid level lapse rates would help aid in convection
development, which may persist through a portion of the overnight
hours. Have expanded slight chance/low chance pops over much of
the area, with the higher pops over Srn AR/N LA. Weak cool
advection and a clear sky should yield slightly cooler temps
along/NW of the I-30 corridor, but will have to await for weak sfc
ridging building in from the NW to help reinforce the weak front S
into Cntrl LA/more of E TX Monday before it slows again. Although
the NBM is keeping the Srn and Wrn zones near the front dry
Monday, did add slight chance pops for Cntrl LA and Deep E TX to
respect moisture pooling, higher instability, and the potential
for isolated convection, which is hinted amongst a few of the
CAMs. While max temps should be hotter Monday than what has/will
be observed this afternoon, drier air mixing S behind the fropa
will maintain heat indices below Heat Advisory criteria for much
of the region. However, the Srn counties and parishes in Deep E
TX/Cntrl LA will near criteria, but have opted to hold off
extending the advisory for these areas given the uncertainty of
the true frontal position, and extent of drier air mixing S.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The weak front still remains progged to linger across the Srn
zones Monday evening before drifting farther S overnight with the
lack of mixing, and have added slight chance pops for the evening
for these areas. The flow aloft is then expected to transition to
NW Monday night, and appears to set the stage for an unsettled
long term period Tuesday through Saturday especially as the
stationary bndry may linger at least through midweek from
Ncntrl/ECntrl TX into SW and Cntrl LA. While the ECMWF/GFS all
suggest an active long term period, they both differ on timing
and extent of convection, and thus confidence remains low in
regards to pops for the upcoming abbreviated work week. Did not
make many changes from the NBM pops this week, keeping chance pops
across the region. It`s certainly possible that pops will be
increased as these events near, especially as mesoscale details
are determined with the anticipated convection. The increased
cloud cover and convection should also maintain near normal temps
through the period.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, hazy DU/FU gathering ahead of a short
wave push across AR. Closest convection is now crossing the MS
River. SCT low clouds over I-30 now, but maybe too much DU to
make a good RA. However, the boundary could pop up a shwr/isold
TS - 06Z and will be monitored for amends, best shot from KTXK to
KMLU. Gusty SW winds will slack after sundown and decouple 01-04Z
with IFR/MVFR 09-13Z for many sites & tempo groups for BR/FG
issues for E TX/KSHV. Weak fropa will shift S/SW to N/NE5KT. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  74  91 /  30  10  10  30
MLU  74  95  70  93 /  30  10  10  20
DEQ  65  93  64  87 /  20   0  10  30
TXK  70  94  69  89 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  72  93  67  90 /  30   0  10  20
TYR  75  95  73  90 /  20  10  10  40
GGG  75  95  71  90 /  20  10  10  30
LFK  75  96  75  93 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...24