Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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805 FXUS64 KSHV 250318 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1018 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM... .UPDATE... Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 We have extended the current SVR watch a couple of hours and added our remaining deep east TX Counties with the update. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Thunderstorms continue to move over S Arkansas and we have extended the SVR Watch 303 for another couple of hours until midnight. Also, we have added our remaining TX Counties as well ahead of the big push currently. The KSHV radar is tracking a large cell along I-20 in east TX and we are continuing see good progressive motion, so flooding may still become an issue for the rain trained areas briefly, but all of our rivers in the general path are normal ahead of this push. More to come this evening and hoping the HRRR is on track with dissipation around midnight. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Troughing will remain in place across the central CONUS as we move into the long-term portion of the forecast period. At the surface, an area of low pressure will be centered over the mid-central CONUS with a cold front extending south from central Kansas into western Texas. A dryline will also be in place from central Oklahoma into southwest Texas. This will lead to some thunderstorm development across east Texas that will traverse through the rest of our area on Sunday. Right now portions of northeast Texas, southwest Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma are in a Slight Risk for strong to severe storms on Sunday. Upper-level trough will quickly push to the northeast Sunday night into Monday morning with a decent cold front developing and extending from the Upper Midwest to north central Texas. This front will eventually push through the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning, ushering in some "cooler" and drier air. Monday should be the last day that we see Heat Index values reach the 100 degree mark as the rest of the week will be well below this mark. Monday will see temperatures climb ahead of the front into the lower to upper 90s. On Tuesday, the "cooler" air will begin to filter in behind the front and will be most noticeably felt across our far northern zones with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Wednesday will be the "coolest" day of the period with temperatures in the 80s across the region. No major chances for precipitation to speak of right now in the long term period however, that is always subject to change. 33 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 For the 25/00Z TAF period, convection will continue to affect our NW terminals this evening, generally including KTYR/KGGG/KTXK and possible KELD. This convection will result in reduced cigs/vsbys, followed by widespread MVFR cigs overnight through late Saturday morning. These cigs should improve to VFR closer to 25/18Z with a cu field lifting throughout the afternoon. Additional convection may develop very late in the period, but it may be delayed until just after 26/00Z so have opted to forego any mention on Saturday afternoon for now. Otherwise, S/SE winds will prevail at around 5-10 kts with higher gusts invof of convection. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 93 76 94 / 50 20 0 10 MLU 72 93 73 94 / 30 20 0 10 DEQ 66 87 70 90 / 60 10 10 10 TXK 70 91 74 92 / 60 20 0 10 ELD 68 90 71 92 / 50 30 0 10 TYR 72 92 75 93 / 100 0 0 0 GGG 72 92 74 92 / 90 10 0 10 LFK 74 94 74 94 / 20 10 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...19