168
FXUS64 KSHV 210557
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1257 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

As of 9:45 PM CDT, temperatures are falling towards the upper 70s
under increasingly partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly
winds. Temperature minimums will fall into the upper 60s/lower
70s. With weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated,
forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The northern edge of a strong upper level ridge of high pressure
will continue to keep our Four State region largely dry and
anomalously warm through the short term period. Expect building
and strengthening southerly low level flow to be bringing back
more moisture into the region from the south and southwest
starting late tonight and this will result in low clouds coming
back to at least west/southwest zones very late tonight through
the morning hours tomorrow. The combination of clouds and slightly
higher winds will keep low temperatures even warmer than was the
case this morning and at least coming close to tying some area
record high minimum temperatures is possible.

High temperatures tomorrow will be a little more regulated by a
bit more cloud cover, but we still anticipate max temperatures
ranging from 89 to 94 degrees with peak afternoon heat index
values getting near 100 degrees in spots. A quick moving
disturbance moving quickly through the Central Plains and Midwest
tomorrow to the north of the aforementioned ridge should kick off
potent thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front up to our
north later tomorrow. There is some chance that the tail end of
these storms could encroach into areas northwest of the I-30
corridor tomorrow night and a stray severe storm up there cannot
be totally ruled out tomorrow night. That said, a large majority
of our region should be dry through tomorrow night. Lows tomorrow
night will be even warmer with even more low clouds and slightly
increased southerly winds. This will put more climate sites in
jeopardy of setting record high minimum temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The main theme of the long range portion of the forecast will be
above normal temperatures, although there will also be decent
chances of storm (along with a risk of severe storms), especially
across the northern half of the region.

The cold front kicking off storms in the Central Plains and
Midwest tomorrow will be sagging closer to our the far NW portion
of the Four State region on Wednesday, with another fast moving
disturbance riding the northwest periphery of the southern states
high pressure ridge likely kicking up afternoon and evening
thunderstorms that should affect at least our northwestern zones.
The Storm Prediction Center has many of these areas outlined in a
Slight Risk for Wednesday afternoon into the night, with the main
risks with any severe storms being large hail and damaging wind
gusts. Increased clouds and southerly winds should help limit
highs to the upper 80s and lower 90s, but the somewhat higher
humidity could still result in peak heat index values approaching,
if not hitting, the century mark.

The upper level ridge will be shunted a bit to the south on
Thursday as the perturbed westerlies aloft to the north of the
ridge push a bit south as well. The aforementioned front will be
weak at the surface and perhaps extending into our northern zones,
but confidence is higher that residual outflow boundaries will
provide triggers for convection in at least northern zones again
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Once again, the
combination of instability and wind shear is expected to be enough
to at least warrant a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms (again,
mainly with a high wind and hail risk) in central and southern
zones.

Uncertainty increases in NWP guidance past Thursday, but there is
a loose consensus that the northern edge of the southern states
ridge will reassert itself again for Friday and through the
weekend. This will mean lower chances for showers and
thunderstorms these days, with the chances again more confined to
northern zones. Also, the heat and humidity will probably increase
further still and perhaps put more areas in jeopardy for tying or
breaking records for late May heat. A subtle pattern change toward
"northwest flow", greater thunderstorm threats, and slight cooler
temperatures still is a possibility for the start of next week,
but of course the uncertainty with regard to that shift is
relatively high given how far out we are talking in the forecast
cycle. /50/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

High cirrus clouds will rapidly increase from west to east at the
start of the period. At the same time, low clouds and patchy fog
will spread northward bringing MVFR ceilings to most TAF sites
with the exception of KMLU. Patchy fog in South Central Arkansas
is already bringing IFR visibilities to KELD, but some improvement
may occur before sunrise as more high clouds arrive. Flight
conditions should slowly improve back into the VFR range by
21/18z. Another round of low clouds are expected to return very
to the area very late in the period.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  91  75  92 /   0  10  20  20
MLU  73  89  72  91 /   0  10  10  20
DEQ  72  87  68  85 /  10  50  60  60
TXK  76  91  71  89 /  10  30  50  40
ELD  73  89  69  88 /   0  20  30  30
TYR  76  90  74  89 /   0  20  30  40
GGG  75  90  73  90 /   0  10  20  30
LFK  75  90  74  91 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09