Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
809 FXUS64 KSHV 212047 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 347 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Quiet conditions across the region today, with mostly cloudy skies. Despite the clouds, temps are still running well above normal, with most areas seeing upper 80s to around 90 degrees at this hour. The center of the upper level ridge in place this morning has started to shift south of the region. This has allowed for southwesterly flow aloft to develop over the area. A weak short-wave along the flow has already kicked off some isolated showers and thunderstorms to the west and northwest of the region. Progs haven`t handled this very well, but the 06z ECMWF kinda shows some indication of this. The storms haven`t been severe, but some have been strong enough for our surrounding offices to issue SPS`s. Expect some of this convection to eventually move into our NW zones later this afternoon before diminishing. The best chance for this occurring will be across areas along and north of I-30 corridor. SPC has continued to highlight a Slight Risk for severe storms in the aforementioned area. This is mostly due to some additional convection developing this evening along a front moving across Oklahoma. This convection could move into our Slight Risk zones before diminishing again late this evening. Hail and damaging winds will be our primary threat. The front will likely stall just to the NW of the region tonight, but additional convection is expected to develop along it as early as Wednesday morning. Although the front should remain NW of the area, the convection is likely to make it into the region throughout the day on Wednesday. uncertainty remains on how far south the convection will make it into the region, but we are pretty confident areas along and north of I-30 will see the brunt of the storms. SPC has highlighted this with an Enhanced risk for severe weather. It does appear that large large hail and damaging winds are the greatest risk, but can`t rule out tornadoes. If these storms train, flash flooding could also become a risk. The convection should start to diminish in coverage by Wednesday evening, but with residual boundaries left over from convection, decided to keep pops in place along and north of I-20 through Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 The frontal boundary will retreat more north of the region on Thursday, but POPs remain in the forecast. Most of this convective development will be tied to residual boundaries in place from the previous day convection and additional weak disturbances moving along the flow aloft. Plenty of instability will remain in place, so more damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible. With another day of convection across the area, excessive rainfall will also become more of an issue. By Friday and through the upcoming Memorial Holiday Weekend, slight chance to low end chance POPs will remain in the forecast. Most of this convection will generally be along and north of the I-20 corridor and will be during peak heating hours. Besides the rain, the other hazard that could be of concern is the heat. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the mid 90s, especially along and south of the I-20 corridor. With low to mid 70 degree dewpoints in place, heat indices could climb between 100-105 degrees, which is just below Heat Advisory criteria. Still expecting a pattern shift early next week as upper ridging appears to becomes dominate across the Intermountain West, with troughing developing across the Midwest. This should result in a front moving through the area, followed by a shift to NW Flow and a cooler pattern for our region. Expect more widespread precip chances with the frontal passage. /20/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon and much of this evening, although an extensive cu shield will linger across the region as low level moisture continues to deepen with the return Srly flow. These cigs should eventually scatter out late this afternoon through the evening, although MVFR cigs are expected to develop after 03Z across Deep E TX/WCntrl LA, and quickly spread N to the I-20 corridor of E TX/Wrn LA by/after 06Z Wednesday, and across the SW AR terminals between 08-10Z. LFK may a brief period of IFR cigs around daybreak, before returning to MVFR by mid- morning. These low cigs will likely linger through late morning/midday Wednesday, before VFR cigs return. Isolated convection will be possible early to mid evening today across portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW A, but should remain N of the TXK terminal and thus, low confidence precludes thunder mention attm. However, a more organized area of convection will develop along a weak cold front across Srn and Ern OK, and will spread into areas NW of the I-30 corridor by mid and late morning, and could affect TXK/ELD by or shortly after the end of the 18Z TAF period. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 91 77 92 73 / 0 10 40 30 MLU 90 73 90 72 / 0 0 40 20 DEQ 87 70 85 66 / 20 30 70 70 TXK 90 75 89 70 / 20 20 60 60 ELD 89 73 87 68 / 0 10 50 40 TYR 90 76 90 72 / 10 20 40 30 GGG 90 76 90 72 / 10 20 40 30 LFK 89 76 91 74 / 10 0 20 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...15