638
FXUS64 KSHV 051747
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1247 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

No major update was needed to the overnight forecast package.
However, I did have to slightly adjust some of the morning PoPs
and cloud cover to better represent current coverage.

/44/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Warm and breezy this morning with gusty S/SE winds. On the flip
side, a line of thunderstorms is shifting the sfc winds across
I-30 right now back to NW with some healthy gusts. Mount Pleasant
peaked at nearly 50 mph recently and we have a couple of warnings
watching along that part of the line. Specials WX statements have
been holding, but the rains are bringing down stronger winds as
enhancements continue to unfold.

Most sites are fair with mid 60s in N LA and upper 60s in S AR
for the coolest ahead of the line, but the rain cooled air is
dropping temps some 5 to 10 degrees. Along and south of I-20 air
temps are mid to upper 70s in E TX. This last good MCS push is
going to take some time to clear all of our southern tier. No
changes at this time to the flood watch, but we can let it go
early if the system outpaces current guidance.

The GFS and ECMWF are very similar with a weak 1008mb high over E
OK this afternoon. The cool pool will advance into our area, but
skies should improve for a warmer afternoon north of I-20 and
maybe more. The NAM is a little deeper on the H500 trough, even
closing off at 577dam over Memphis later today and likewise
keeping convection going south of I-20 across the remainder of
our Four-State area late this afternoon and early this evening.
So some highs over the south may preceed the weather, while skies
have to thin for the sun later on today. Overnight looks cooler
with more patchy fog areawide toward daybreak with light NW winds
that will veer to N/NE and keep for a while with a larger airmass
dropping down our way to wrap up the work week. Low will vary from
N to S to start our Thursday and more sunshine will push the
mercury higher and higher in the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The deep parent low remains in the Great Lakes and will be
lobbing down lowering heights aloft for us in a decent trough
again early next week. Until then, the Four-Corners upper ridge
will drift eastward over TX for this weekend. It is 592dam over AZ
this morning and will drift into E TX at 593dam, while the NE
winds on the sfc swing back to S/SE for the weekend. A hearty
warming trend for sure with heat index readings over the century
mark for us all weekend. We may just be under advisory criteria.

Then under that trough dropping down early next week, we will see
NE sfc winds return to greet the new work week. Slightly cooler
temps nestle back down the MS River Valley. This will likely drum
up next significant rainfall Monday and Tuesday. That air mass
will be 1015mb and keep up in the middle MS River Valley. Then a
decent H500 impulses proceeds another 1018mb high for the middle
of next week. So the lowering heights, added clouds and rain
around will bring back mid to upper 80s for next work week.
Meanwhile, the GFS shows a tropical look with an 584dam low
lifting over E TX on Wednesday. In fact the entire Gulf coast gets
an Easterlies look we really haven`t seen so far. So more rain
then too, but at least a few days of a warm to hot respite
unpacking later today and through the coming weekend. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Ceilings are largely improving to VFR this afternoon, as the bulk
of the morning precipitation continues to move south of the
terminals. Skies will continue to clear this afternoon and
evening, eventually becoming mostly clear/clear overnight.
Clearing skies along with winds becoming calm overtop a saturated
surface will make for excellent fog conditions overnight. Patchy
fog is likely after sunset, becoming widespread and possibly dense
after midnight and through daybreak Thursday. Reduced vsbys are
likely at terminals, potentially below 1SM. Conditions will
improve through the morning Thursday, yielding mostly clear skies
and winds less than 5kts. Winds this afternoon out of the W/SW
5-10kts.

Kovacik


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  93  72  94 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  70  92  70  90 /  20  10   0   0
DEQ  62  92  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  65  92  70  92 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  66  90  68  90 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  70  92  71  93 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  69  92  71  93 /  10   0   0  20
LFK  71  94  70  95 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...23