163
FXUS64 KSHV 221800 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
100 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 284 will be in effect until 500
PM CDT for southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of northeast
Texas and southwest Arkansas, with southern and eastward expansion
likely later today.

Strong areas of convection have begun to light up across eastern
Oklahoma as of the 15Z hour and do not show any signs of weakening
as they trek south and east into the ArkLaTex. The southernmost
of these cells is approaching Pushmataha and Choctaw counties and
looks to begin impacting McCurtain county Oklahoma within an hour
or two.

This development is representative of a somewhat earlier
progression of today`s severe weather than the latest model runs
suggested, but the ultimate mode of convection appears
consistent. Additional discrete development pushing out of central
Texas later today is possible, followed by coalescing into an MCS
as the event progresses. Large hail in excess of 2 inches in
diameter and damaging severe wind gusts will be the primary
threats associated with these storms, but a tornado or two cannot
be ruled out.

Increased PoPs across our northernmost zones to represent this
accelerated arrival of storms, and based on yesterday`s highs
despite cloud cover, nudged today`s highs up a degree or two.
Ingested the most recent several hours of temperature and dewpoint
observations and interpolated through to 00Z Thursday.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and at least a portion
of this evening, with cu cigs expected to persist across much of
the region through this time. However, convection will continue to
increase through the afternoon across portions of NE TX/SW AR,
possibly affecting the TXK terminal by mid-afternoon. This
convection should eventually build farther SE across E TX and into
N LA by/after 00Z Thursday, affecting the I-20 terminals between
00-03Z. MVFR cigs with gusty winds/reduced vsbys are likely
in/near the convection, although these storms should develop a
cold pool deep enough to delay the onset of low cloud development
through much of the overnight hours generally along/N of I-20.
However, low MVFR/IFR cigs will be possible at LFK especially if
convection does not affect this terminal late this
evening/overnight. Once diurnal heating commences shortly after
daybreak, should begin to see IFR/low MVFR cigs develop over the
area, which will slowly lift/eventually scatter out by the end of
the 18Z TAF period. S winds 8-13kts with occasional higher gusts
to 20kts, will become SSE and diminish below 10kts, except gusty
in/near convection. Winds should diminish to 5kts or less once the
convection diminishes late tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  74  91  74 /  50  70  20  20
MLU  92  72  90  72 /  40  60  20  20
DEQ  88  67  82  67 /  90  70  50  50
TXK  92  71  88  72 /  90  70  40  40
ELD  91  68  87  68 /  80  60  30  30
TYR  92  73  89  73 /  60  70  20  20
GGG  93  72  90  72 /  50  70  20  20
LFK  91  73  92  74 /  20  50  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
AVIATION...15