Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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360 FXUS64 KSHV 240351 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1051 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM... .UPDATE... Issued at 1043 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 The SPC has issued SVR TS watch #298 including our I-30 corridor. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Well the question of a left turn in W AR or across SW AR for the expected new convection has been determined by a higher power. So to update the evening update, we have returned "some maybe severe" to our posted likely pops across I-30 and north. Large hail and damaging winds will be primary issues to be watched, but it is springtime, so keep the NOAA WX radio bedside for those in our SVR Thunderstorm watch area into the overnight. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 As of this writing, the daytime hours Saturday look to largely be dry. As a more robust threat for severe weather takes shape to our west and north, impacts may manage to graze the northernmost zones of the ArkLaTex, primarily along and north of the I-30 corridor, and mostly likely following the pattern of recent days with impacts beginning after 00Z Sunday, continuing through the night and coming to an end by Sunday morning. Sunday and Monday will see a continuation of this timing pattern, as the morning and afternoon will likely be dry, with the best chances for some scattered showers and storms along our northeast fringes near or after sundown, with more widespread impacts possible Monday afternoon and overnight with the frontal passage. The weekend will see persistent southerly flow reinforce the warming trend experienced this week, with widespread highs in the low 90s across the region and an increase in highs climbing into the middle 90s, in concert with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, these will make for uncomfortable to oppressive humidity for portions of the region before a regime change finally takes effect. Said pattern shift looks to manifest during the day Monday, as the upper level troughing associated with the surface boundary finally gets nudged north and east by a building ridge out of the west. This transitional pattern will allow for northwesterly flow to return area lows to the 60s and highs to the 80s through at least the middle of next week, followed by a fairly quick return to the 90s by the end of this extended forecast period, with mostly dry conditions through Tuesday and Wednesday and the next notable chance of rainfall arriving before dawn next Thursday. /26/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 844 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 For the 24/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail to begin the period with the exception of KTXK where MVFR cigs have already settled in this evening. This trend of lower cigs will continue across the remainder of our airspace later this evening through the overnight hours with widespread MVFR cigs and patchy IFR cigs through mid to late morning. Cigs should return to VFR by early afternoon with southerly winds between 10-15 kts on Friday. Any convection should remain isolated and have only included VCTS at a few sites to account for this possibility. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 93 74 93 / 40 0 30 0 MLU 74 93 72 93 / 50 0 20 10 DEQ 67 86 68 87 / 60 10 40 10 TXK 70 90 71 90 / 60 10 50 10 ELD 66 90 69 90 / 50 10 40 10 TYR 74 92 72 93 / 40 10 30 0 GGG 72 92 71 92 / 40 10 30 0 LFK 75 94 73 95 / 10 0 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...19