365
FXUS64 KTSA 111726
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Warming trend continues today with high temperatures in the mid
to upper 80s. Scattered high clouds will persist this afternoon
as MCS tracks southeast across north Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Weak upper low currently centered over the TX Panhandle will track
southeastward today while gradually opening into a minor wave
across E TX by Wed. morning. Guidance is in good agreement that
the precip shield associated with the wave will remain just south
and west of far SE OK with a few brief light showers extending
into eastern OK. The forecast will remain dry today for the local
forecast area with temps near or a few degrees warmer than Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Ridging aloft strengthens through the southern Plains Wed. -
Thurs. and the expanding low level thermal ridge will support a
notable warming trend area wide. A stronger wave will pass across
the northern Plains on Thursday with the attendant surface trough
sliding through the forecast area late Thursday night through
Friday night. Initial frontal convection located across the
central Plains will struggle to be maintained southward as ridging
aloft / warm mid level temps suppress convective potential and
guidance remains in good agreement that precip chances will remain
very low with the frontal passage. Temperatures will remain well
above normal through the weekend with no cooling expected as the
boundary passes.

A stronger wave is expected to pass through the Plains Saturday
into Sunday, however at this time the primary precip corridor is
expected north of the local region. The wave will help shunt the
upper ridge eastward by early next week and resultant flow is
expected to allow a surge of deep tropical moisture into the
region. This would allow a return of rain chances and slightly
cooler temps for early next week. The reprieve from the early
season heat is likely to be brief as upper ridging strengthens
across the region by mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024
Scattered mid/high clouds will persist with a few lower level CU
developing this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
with light winds through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  91  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   65  91  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   64  89  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   62  90  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   62  88  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   61  88  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   63  88  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   61  88  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
F10   63  88  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12