493
FXUS64 KTSA 091134
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Early this morning a mid level shortwave was tracking eastward
across Southern Kansas with widespread showers/convection moving
through Eastern Kansas into Missouri. The bulk of the convection
resided along the 850-mb frontogenetic forcing axis oriented from
west to east across Southern Kansas and then more southeast into
Southwest Missouri. At the surface...a trailing outflow boundary
from the convection was moving through Northern/Central Oklahoma
and into Northeast Oklahoma. Gusty to locally strong winds had
been reported with the outflow boundary as it approached Osage
county.

Through mid morning...the bulk of the convection is forecast to
remain just north/northeast of the CWA. However...the southern
portion of the convection remains forecast to push across
Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as the shortwave and
associated outflow boundary continues to move off to the east. The
greater thunder potential is progged along/near the Kansas border
into far Northwest Arkansas. Limited severe potentials remain
forecast with this activity with large hail and locally damaging
winds the main threats. At the same time...with precipitable water
values approaching 2 inches...locally heavy rainfall is expected
with the stronger storms.

A frontal boundary located just north of the CWA is also expected
to get a push southward into Northeast Oklahoma this morning as
the shortwave moves across Kansas. This boundary will continue to
sag southward across the CWA...over taking the remnant outflow
boundary as it moves into Southeast Oklahoma and West Central
Arkansas this afternoon. These boundaries through late morning and
then mainly the front this afternoon will be the primary focus for
additional shower and thunderstorm chances today. Thunder
potentials will remain north of the surface front to the trailing
850-mb front...with precip chances tapering off north of
Interstate 44 late this afternoon.

The greater instability should remain along/near the surface to
925-mb frontal boundary with limited severe potentials continuing
through the afternoon hours. Large hail and locally damaging winds
remain the primary threats through this afternoon. Again...locally
heavy rainfall could also be a concern with the ample amounts of
low level moisture over the region. At this time the greater storm
potential late morning through the afternoon is forecast near the
front in far Eastern Oklahoma and also Northwest Arkansas.

Behind the frontal boundary...gusty northerly winds should weaken
with time today and also help to transport cooler conditions into
the CWA. High temps in the 80s are forecast north of Interstate
40 and lower 90s south of I-40. Some locations near the Kansas
Missouri borders could possibly remain in the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The frontal boundary is forecast to be across far Southeast
Oklahoma and exiting Northwest Arkansas this evening and then
finally exiting Southeast Oklahoma overnight tonight. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue with the front into the
overnight hours. Instability weakens and becomes mainly elevated
through the evening hours and as such severe potentials should
also decrease this evening. The 850-mb frontal boundary is
forecast to sag south of the Red River Monday morning with precip
chances exiting by Monday afternoon.

Cooler conditions...high temps in the 80s...continue Monday over
the CWA in the wake of the departing frontal boundary and should
continue into Tuesday as another weak area of low pressure slides
southeast through the Southern Plains. Additional shower and
thunderstorm chances return Tuesday with this shortwave and look
to exit Wednesday. The greater precip potential looks to be
Tuesday night into Wednesday across Southeast Oklahoma as the wave
moves through the region. Instability is forecast to be marginal
Tuesday/Wednesday and severe weather is not currently anticipated
for the CWA.

Once the shortwave exits mid week...mid level heights are forecast
to rise with a ridge of high pressure late week. In response...a
warming trend and more humid conditions are forecast Thursday into
the weekend. Extended model solutions indicate a shortwave moving
through the Plains late weekend...which may bring a return of
precip chances to the CWA...depending on the track of the low. As
of this forecast package...will hold off on mentionable PoPs for
now but is some thing to keep an eye on for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Ongoing scattered showers and isolated storms across NW AR taper
off in coverage with westward extent and this pattern is likely to
prevail through the morning. Cold front currently advancing
through NE OK will continue slowly southward and be a focus for
renewed storm develop from early afternoon through mid evening.
Overall coverage of additional storms continues to appear rather
low with western AR being nearer the zone of potentially higher
afternoon coverage. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings develop north of the
front and persist into the evening with eventual rise into VFR
levels from north to south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  63  84  62 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   90  65  85  64 /  40  50  10   0
MLC   91  67  83  64 /  40  40  20  10
BVO   79  58  84  59 /  30  10   0   0
FYV   83  59  83  58 /  50  20   0   0
BYV   78  57  80  58 /  60  20   0   0
MKO   86  63  84  63 /  40  20   0   0
MIO   76  58  81  57 /  60  10   0   0
F10   87  64  82  63 /  30  20  20   0
HHW   93  70  81  65 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07