947
AXNT20 KNHC 151901
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Sep 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gordon is centered near 19.2N 45.5W at 15/1500
UTC or 1000 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WSW at
8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The 12 ft
seas extend 60 nm out from the center in the N semicircle of
Gordon, with peak seas around 13 ft. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 21N between 40W
and 43W. A west to west-southwest motion is expected during the
next few days, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably
through the middle of the week. Gordon is expected to weaken to a
tropical depression later today or tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Storm Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 23W from 04N to
17N. The wave is nearly stationary. Convection near this wave is
associated with the monsoon trough.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 20N
southward to western Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed near the south
coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W extending
from 20N to inland Panama. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring along and near the far southern portions of this wave,
likely aided by the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon
trough reaching across the southwest Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and
continues southwestward to near 09N36W, and then resumes near
13N51W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N
to 17N from 43W eastward, and from 08N to 13N between 45W and 57W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped across the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring off
the coast of the northern Gulf from 89W through coastal Florida.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail across the
basin.

For the forecast, light to gentle breezes will occur through much
of the upcoming week. Locally moderate to fresh winds could pulse
in the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves moving across the basin.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in
central portions of the basin from 15N to the coasts of Jamaica
and Hispaniola between 70W and 77W. Otherwise, a relatively fair
and modest trade- wind pattern continues across much of the basin.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted via recent
scatterometer data in the central Caribbean, along with seas of 4
to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate E trade winds along with slight seas
are over the eastern portions of the basin. Gentle NE to SE winds
and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will pulse in
the central Caribbean through the middle of this week, with
locally strong winds possible in the south-central basin tonight
thru Tue. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh E winds will also
occur off the coast of Honduras Mon into the middle of the week.
Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to
moderate seas will continue across the waters the next several
days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the Tropical Waves
section for details on the wave in the basin.

A 1008 mb off the coast of northeast Florida is located near
31N77W, and a stationary front extends southwestward to the
central coast of Florida. Farther east, a stationary front
extends eastward from 31N77W to 32N56W. An area of scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms is occurring across areas north
of 23N between 74W and the east coast of Florida, including the
central and northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring farther east across a large area due to the nearby
stationary front, with convection occurring north of 27N between
48W and 74W. Near and immediately south of the front, moderate to
fresh W to SW winds are occurring along with seas of 6 to 10 ft.
Near and immediately north of the front, fresh to strong NE winds
and seas of 8 to 12 ft are occurring. Winds and seas were
confirmed via recent scatterometer and altimeter data.

Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin away from Tropical Storm Gordon and the aforementioned
areas of convection associated with the stationary front. Gentle
to moderate E to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are occurring
across much of the basin east of 50W. To the west of 50W, light to
gentle SW winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are analyzed. From the
Equator to 10N and east of 45W, moderate to fresh S to SE winds
and seas of 4 to 7 ft are occurring.

For the forecast west of 55W away from the potential tropical
development off the southeastern coast of the U.S., a non-
tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal boundary a
couple of hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coast, and is
producing winds to gale force north of its center. The low is
forecast to move northwestward or northward over the warm waters
of the Gulf Stream toward the coasts of North Carolina and South
Carolina, and it could become a subtropical or tropical storm
during the next day or two if the associated front dissipates and
showers and thunderstorms become sufficiently organized.
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, expect
increasing winds and building seas across the waters north of 29N
over the next several days. Moderate to fresh NE winds and rough
seas will develop by midweek north of 25N and east of 60W. Gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
otherwise.


$$
Adams