001
FXUS64 KCRP 272340
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
640 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Goodness gracious, great balls of fire! It is HOT today. Heat
index values are currently ranging from 113-117 across South
Texas. Temperatures will remain elevated into the evening, so
continue to be careful out there tonight. The good news is that
temperatures should break a little for tomorrow with heat index
values at most locations staying below 114. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible late this evening as convection moves
across the Rio Grande. While confidence is not high that storms
will actually make it across the river, should they hold together,
they could be strong to severe. Those over the Rio Grande Plains
and western Brush Country should be careful to monitor their
weather this evening.

The ridge aloft will be squashed overnight and Tuesday, allowing
shortwaves to move across the northern area. This could introduce
some convection for Tuesday. There is only a low to moderate
(15%-40%) chance of convection but any storms could become strong
to severe. SPC has included our northwestern area in a Slight
Risk of severe weather, with a Marginal Risk elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to extreme heat related impacts can be expected Wednesday
through Sunday.

On Wednesday, the models (GFS and ECMWF) have a 500 mb ridge over
central Texas with a shortwave trough riding along it. The models
each kick off a complex of storms with each causing some sort of
feedback that pushes the storms in a different direction than the
other. Since this is either past or near past the end of the CAMs,
they are of no help, with the NAM having a third solution from hrs
60 through 84 on the 12z runs. The ECMWF has a thunderstorm complex
that kicks off Wednesday afternoon, which seems like it is forcing a
cold pool boundary to fire convection through South Texas and into
Deep South Texas. The GFS moves all of the thunderstorms northeast
east, and we are done. The NAM idea is pretty much dry over the
region through the 24 hours. So have gone with the NBM with its 20-
35% chance during the day on Wednesday and 20-25% Wednesday night.
One of the complicating factors is that the ridge and shortwaves
impact on temperatures. Looking through the guidance, the GFS is on
the high side with 105F in the Brush Country, and 100 or less on the
GFS. The NAM is around the NBM. However, if the GFS is right then if
could be warmer, and if the ECMWF is right it could be cooler.
Thursday and Thursday night look like things could be the same as
Wednesday with the NBM warming up a degree or two. The same looks
for Friday and Friday night (thunderstorms in the afternoon, 95-100F
temperatures, and 100-110F Heat Indices). This pattern with a
squashed ridge that allows thunderstorms, and continues with high
indices looks like it will continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

CRP/ALI/VCT: Borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings are making their way
into the Coastal Plains. Expect MVFR conditions to prevail from
03-16Z across these sites with a medium chance of IFR ceilings
over ALI/VCT from 10-14Z. Haze will persist through the TAF
period, causing vsby to drop to 4-6SM. A mix of patchy fog and
haze may reduce visibility as low as 3SM early in the morning.
Southeasterly winds around 12 knots will diminish tonight, then
increase to 12 gusting to 20 knots in the late morning to
afternoon hours.

COT/LRD: Storms have developed north of San Antonio and over
Mexico along the Sierra Madres, with light showers in advance.
Confidence is very low that this activity will make it east of the
Rio Grande and impact LRD/COT but if storms do maintain, they
bring a threat of strong winds and large hail. Therefore, did not
want to remove the mention of TSRA in COT/LRD completely; but
knowing the history of convection development like this, they
have the tendency to diminish by the time they reach the Rio
Grande. We`ll keep a close eye and amend if necessary. Otherwise,
a few hours in the morning between 11-16Z of MVFR ceilings and
hazy conditions are expected. Southeasterly winds around 12 knots
gusting to around 20 knots will weaken later tonight through
tomorrow morning, returning tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through Wednesday night
before strengthening to moderate to strong levels Thursday. There
will be a low (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms each
day from Wednesday through the end of the work week, mainly across
the Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  94  80  93 /  10  10  20  30
Victoria          77  95  77  91 /  10  10  20  40
Laredo            80 103  78 100 /  20  20  30  20
Alice             78  98  78  95 /  10  10  20  30
Rockport          80  91  81  90 /   0  10  20  30
Cotulla           79 101  78  98 /  20  20  40  20
Kingsville        79  96  79  94 /  10  10  20  20
Navy Corpus       82  91  82  91 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ229>232-239>244.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ233-234-245>247-
     342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...EMF/94