829
FXUS64 KCRP 062045
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
345 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Key Messages:

- Patchy morning fog possible tonight.

Ridging aloft will continue to build through the short-term range
with mostly rain-free conditions persisting across South Texas. Some
pockets of deeper moisture will move over the Rio Grande Plains this
afternoon/evening sparking convection along the way, but expecting
most of the activity to stay west of the border. Much drier
conditions arrive Friday into Friday night with PWATs falling below
normal levels. Having said that, low level moisture will remain high
enough for patchy fog development across portions of the Coastal
Plains tonight under light and variable winds.

In regards to the temperatures, these will be running a few degrees
cooler at 850 mb allowing for surface temps to run slightly cooler
during the daytime on Friday. The combination of the slightly drier
air and cooler temperatures will in turn limit the spread of Heat
Advisory conditions tomorrow. Nonetheless, a few locations could
still reach Advisory criteria (110-114 degrees) tomorrow afternoon
if a seabreeze develops, particularly those along inland portions of
the southern coastal counties and into Jim Wells.

After much consideration, have decided to hold off on issuance of
another Coastal Flood Advisory for tonight into Friday morning`s
high tide cycle. The main reason for the hold off is because swell
periods, heights and winds have been subsiding through the day and
this trend change is expected to limit the potential for coastal
flooding. But, will pass it on to the evening shift for monitoring
and further evaluation in case one is needed later on.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Mid-level ridging gradually shifts eastward across the region over
the weekend and by Monday has lost its influence over South Texas.
A shortwave is progged to pass across the area, and while moisture
still looks low, could be enough to squeeze out a bit of
convection Monday into Tuesday before ridging regains control.
PoPs are minimal at this time, but may need to consider increasing
if model agreement improves. GFS, as it frequently the case, is
the most robust with rain chances while other models are drier.

As far as temperatures, we will actually drop it back a notch this
weekend and into next week. It`s still going to be hot - it is
June in South Texas after all - but temperatures west will be
mainly between 100 and 105 with 90s east. Heat index values are
also looking mainly below 110 through much of the week. Overall
the pattern is pretty typical with daily sea breeze pushing in
clearing out clouds and bringing breezy southeasterly winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail across area terminals through
the cycle. The exception will be a brief TEMPO between 09-13Z
Friday morning at ALI/VCT for MVFR due to potential patchy fog
formation. Winds will be relatively light and variable through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Weak onshore flow is expected through tonight increasing to
weak to moderate onshore flow levels by Friday night. A weak to
moderate onshore flow will persist into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  94  76  93 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          73  96  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            78 101  75 101 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             76  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          80  93  81  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           77 102  74 103 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  97  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       81  91  81  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239>244-
     342>344.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...ANM