686
AXPZ20 KNHC 282138
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2125 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N84W to 11N100W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N116W to another
1010 mb low pressure near 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from
08N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is present from 06N to 12N and east of 94W, and from
05N to 11N and between 114W and 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 35N139W extends
southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh NW-N
winds in the offshore waters of Baja California, with the
strongest winds occurring south of Punta Eugenia. Seas in these
waters are 4-6 ft.

Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulfs of
Tehuantepec and California, light to gentle winds and moderate
seas prevail. Hazy conditions persist off southern and SW
Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural
fires over southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may
decrease at times to 3 nm or less.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to support
moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas off Baja
California into mid-week. Light to gentle winds and moderate
seas in SW swell will prevail across open waters elsewhere. Hazy
conditions may persist off southern and SW Mexico, including the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern
Mexico and Central America. Looking ahead, expect building seas
with the arrival of long period NW swell beyond 90 nm off Baja
California from late Wed through Fri, with seas building up to 9
or 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the area supports moderate to locally
fresh easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
in these waters are 3-4 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh southerly
winds are noted on a recent scatterometer satellite pass south
of the monsoon trough. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

Divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper trough reaching
from Cuba to Central America is producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms affecting the nearshore and offshore
waters of Central America. Hazy conditions continue off the
Central American coast due to agricultural fires in southern
Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to
3 nm or less.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds are
forecast across the Papagayo region through Friday. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south of the
monsoon trough along roughly 10N while light to gentle winds are
expected north of it through Fri. Combined seas will remain in
the 4-6 ft range most of the work-week as additional pulses of
SW swell propagate across the forecast region. Hazy skies from
smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central
America may reduce visibilities over portions of the Central
America offshore waters through the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1030 mb subtropical ridge located north of the area continues
to dominate the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. The
pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to locally fresh
easterly trade winds south of 24N and west of 120W. Seas in
these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and
seas of 5-6 ft are noted from 19N to 26N and east of 120W.
Stronger winds and higher seas may be present near the
thunderstorms along the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the region
will support an increased area of fresh to locally strong trade
winds, mainly from 08N to 22N west of 120W, allowing seas to
build to 10 ft over the next few days. Meanwhile, northerly
swell will move into the waters north of 25N and east of 130W Wed
and Thu, with maximum seas reaching 8-10 ft in a combination of
NW swell and fresh NW winds. Gentle to moderate breezes and
moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

$$
Delgado