089
FXUS63 KFGF 271710
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1210 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms late week with a
  50% chance for more than 0.50 inches.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

There has been a little morning sun over our far southeast FA,
where Elbow Lake has risen to 65 degrees. The surface low looks
to be somewhere east of Alexandria Minnesota, while water vapor
imagery shows the best circulation over southwest Minnesota,
but another lobe over west central Minnesota. The non supercell
tornado parameter and surface vorticity SPC products are
highlighting our south and southeast FA, where MLCAPE values are
creeping up over 500J/kg. Therefore will have to keep an eye on
the few little cells popping up across this area (for rotation)
for another hour or so until they shift south of the FA.

UPDATE
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

The forecast continues to look good this morning. The first
shortwave over northeast South Dakota will continue to drop
southeast today, while another one over southern Manitoba will
rotate through the FA behind the first (more so tonight). Most
of the activity associated with the first wave will push from
the central Red River Valley into our southeast FA today, while
more scattered activity is expected to develop behind the first
wave more so this afternoon. Overall there will be more clouds
than sunny spots, along with the scattered showers and storms.

UPDATE
Issued at 658 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

500 mb low nearing Aberdeen SD at 12z. Interesting is that
northeast of the upper low an area of rain showers increased in
coverage after midnight and this is where an area of widespread
rainfall with a pocket of over one half inch southwest of Grand
Forks at NDAWN stations near Northwood. This upper low and
associated showers to move southeast this morning. Still will
have upper wave upstream to move in as anticipated with chances
for isolated or scattered shower or a t-storm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

500 mb short wave was near Bismarck at 08z and will be near
Aberdeen at 12z and then into southwest Minnesota by 18z. Main
area of precipitation (mostly light rain) was ahead of this
short wave moving thru the RRV and into west central MN.
Scattered showers were located farther north and west into
Manitoba and central ND. This first and strongest short wave
moves out this morning while another short wave moves south-
southeast from western Manitoba into the Red River valley this
evening. As this moves in this aftn/eve a few hundred j/kg CAPE
enough to generate scattered showers and t-storms ahead of it,
particularly eastern ND. Scattered shower and t-storm chances
move out of SE ND after 06z. Winds today start light and
variable but till turn north at 10-20 kts today. Cooler today
with highs in the 60s.

Decreasing clouds Tuesday but a north wind remains 10 to 15 kts.
High pressure moves south over the area Tuesday night with clear
sky and then a sunny Wednesday ahead as winds turn south-
southeast at 10-20 kts in the aftn. Cool Tuesday night, with
lows around 40 in many areas, some upper 30s in NW MN.

Next 500 mb upper low moves into central and northern Alberta
with a short wave moving east around the upper low from
Washington state to eastern Montana by 18z Thursday. A narrow
ribbon of instability present along the high plains from eastern
Montana and western ND south will bring a chance for
thunderstorms, locally strong or severe in those areas to our
west Thursday. Area of showers and t-storms in advance of this
upper level short wave moves into E ND/RRV Thursday aftn but
instability is weak but enough for a few t-storms. This band of
showers and t-storms moves slowly east Thu night and into Friday
for NW/WC MN. Using NBM 4.2, 48 hour QPF probs from 12z Thu-12z
Sat is 50 percent chance for 0.50 inch or more and 20 percent
chance for 1 inch or more across the area, with highest
percentages in the Red River valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Tricky set of TAFs, due to up and down ceilings and continued
spotty showers and thunderstorms. The ceilings should stay
mainly VFR through the afternoon, but they could briefly dip at
times into the MVFR range (mainly with any shower/storm
activity). Pretty hard to time any precipitation at the TAF
sites, so mentioned VCSH and will update if something appears on
track affect a TAF site. Winds look to stay pretty steady from
about 340 to 350 degrees at 10 knots.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Godon/Riddle