Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 291740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAIN WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND LOWERED POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CONTINUE AND WITH MAIN PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAIN REMAINS CONFINED TO THE FAR S-SE FA. BAND HAS MOVED LITTLE
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HOLD PCPN IN UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPPED POPS IN THIS AREA THROUGH NOON. SOME BREAKS MOVING INTO THE
FAR NORTH HOWEVER INCREASED SKY COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE PRECIP EXTENDS FROM KELLIHER MN TO ENGLEVALE
ND. PRECIP WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. NO CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MAN AND WILL
MOVE TO THE EASTERN CANADIAN COAST BY SUN. REINFORCING TROUGH OVER
SASK/MAN SAT WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO BY SUN. THEN MORE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR SUN NIGHT. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FIFTIES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WAS AROUND 1.4 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AND EAST TODAY. MOST PLACE WILL HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH BY SAT MORNING.

RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST ZONES. AREAL COVERAGE
WAS DECREASING. FLOOD WARNINGS/ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR SOME OF THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM BDE TO
OAKES ND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST UNDER 10
KNOTS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

(MONDAY-THURSDAY)...MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WHICH MEANS LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. UPPER RIDGING WILL
OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...PLACING THIS
AREA IN SW FLOW ALOFT BY WED-THUR. CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP AT ANY
TIME GIVEN NUMEROUS UPPER WAVES EITHER ROUNDING THE RIDGE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...OR EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN COAST TROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (WED-THUR)
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VERY
UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE HOW FAST THE CLOUDS THIN OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS DYING DOWN IN THE EARLY EVENING. THEN SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES
AND N-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...GODON


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