Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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499
FXUS63 KFGF 311137
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Had some brief periods of fog from Wadena through Fargo and that
has cleared up. Did extend westward the mention of fog at Bemidji.
Expect any remaining widely patchy fog to erode by 8 AM.
Convection to west continues to track to the southeast as expected
and no plans to introduce POPs in southwestern zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Forecast challenge for the short term will be temperatures and to
a degree sky cover. There is a ribbon of weak mid level moisture
convergence from the Minot area down thorugh Lamoure Co, with some
non-severe convection along the southern half of this axis. RAP
guidance initialized well with convection over s central ND and
keeps it west of the forecast area. With ridging through NW MN and
easterly flow across eastern ND, RAP/ECAM guidance seem reasonable
that any activity will remain in central ND and will continue with
a dry forecast. Weak sfc flow/mixing over the area will keep the
region mainly in the upper 70s to around 80 despite plenty solar.

Note that the GFS does advect precipitation into NW this evening,
however it appears to be overly bullish with moisture and given
east to southeast sfc flow, will keep dry forecast as discussed
above. SREF/NAM are both dry through the evening and overnight
hours.

Ridge axis begins to shift east this afternoon with strong
southerly return flow setting up over western Dakotas by this
afternoon...with around 5 to 10 mph winds in western zones
tonight. This will keep overnight lows across eastern ND 3 to 5
degrees warmer than Wed morning lows.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Thursday and Friday will see increasing southerly flow with decent
adiabatic layers setting up for both afternoons, the deepest on
Friday, and breezy conditions across the west on Thursday and
within and west of the valley on Friday. This will also help bump
daytime highs into the lower 80s for western zones while overnight
lows increase into the lower 60s. Although some isolated warm
advection showers/storms are possible during overnight hours with
increasing LLJ, only mention will be early Saturday morning as a
cold front enters the Minot area. Have kept low POPs in the Devils
Lake basin ahead of this incoming front.

Saturday through Tuesday...the forecast for this period starts off
with southwest flow aloft and an upper low over
Alberta/Saskatchewan. A trough of low pressure and cold front will
approach from the west on Saturday....providing strong southerly
winds and a ribbon of high theta-e air ahead of it. CAPEs look to
favor a strong thunderstorm environment on Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night across the area. This front will move slowly across
the area Saturday night and Sunday...providing the focus for
precipitation through the weekend. An upper wave is also expected to
push through the region in southwest flow aloft on Sunday...helping
favor abundant rainfall over a prolonged period. There may be a lull
in precip on Monday before another wave in SW flow moves through the
area. All in all...this looks like a rather wet period.
Highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s on Saturday...falling to
the mid 60s to low 70s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

VFR with light winds turning easterly today then southeasterly
overnight. Winds around DVL may be in the 10 to 15 mph range by
mid afternoon but remaining sites will be light. AM fog possible
vcnty of BJI near end of TAF time.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Knutsvig/Speicher
AVIATION...Speicher



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