810
FXUS66 KHNX 012015
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
115 PM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Seven to ten degrees above normal temperatures will continue
this afternoon.
2. Gusty west winds will develop tonight through Sunday morning
for the Mojave Desert Slopes.
3. Following a cool down early next week, a more significant
warming trend will take place next week with probabilities of
exceeding 105 degrees at 35 to 65 percent for most of the San
Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert on Wednesday and Thursday.
An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for these areas.
4. The anticipated heat for later next week could lead to
increased snowmelt from the Sierra Nevada with colder and higher
flows along rivers and waterways.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High temperatures today will remain around 10 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Many areas in the San Joaquin
Valley look to see high temperatures in the mid to high 90s. The
ridge currently impacting the area is moving eastward across the
United States and will be followed with a shallow trough and
zonal flow, which will cool temperatures tomorrow through
Monday. Temperatures tomorrow and Monday will cool to just near
normal for this time of year.

As the transition between ridge and trough happens tonight into
the weekend, winds in their usual gusty areas, the Mojave Desert
Slopes, will be elevated through this evening and into tomorrow
morning. Probabilities for gusts near 50 mph in and around
Mojave through the afternoon and evening currently hover around
70%. As such, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave
Desert Slopes from 5pm this afternoon through 8am tomorrow
morning.

The shallow trough and zonal flow will begin to transition to a
ridge on Tuesday, and by Wednesday will have strengthened considerably.
This strong ridge of high pressure aloft will result in our
first heatwave of the year. Temperatures will rise 4-6 degrees
from Monday to Tuesday, and then rise 10-15 degrees from Tuesday
to Wednesday, a considerable increase. Many places in the San
Joaquin Valley have high percentages for seeing 105 degrees as a
high on Wednesday and Thursday. Due to model confidence around
these temperatures next week, an Excessive Heat Watch has been
issued for the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert from 11
am PDT Wednesday through 8 pm PDT Thursday. This will result in
a moderate heat risk for the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County
Desert, meaning everyone without access to adequate cooling and
hydration will be at risk of heat related illnesses. Here are
probabilities that specific areas within the San Joaquin Valley
will see temperatures of 105 degrees or above on Wednesday:
Bakersfield: 51%
Fresno: 51%
Lemoore: 51%
Hanford: 41%
Delano: 41%
Visalia: 51%
Merced: 41%
Madera: 36%
Porterville: 41%

Because of these hot temperatures in the valley and temperatures
above 70 degrees in much of the Sierra Nevada and adjacent
foothills, snowmelt will occur throughout these two days. This
snowmelt will lead to rapid currents along streams and rivers.
These currents are extremely cold and dangerous, and could be
life threatening. Plan to take extensive precautionary measures
if you plan on getting in the water next weekend and heed any
and all lake and river closures.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central California
interior for the next 24 hours. Gusty winds near 48 knots are
possible in the Mojave Desert Slopes from 0Z this evening
through 15Z tomorrow morning.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  05/31/2024 15:53
EXPIRES: 06/01/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PDT Sunday for
CAZ338.
Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
evening for CAZ301>307-309>317-319-321-337-339.
&&

$$

public/aviation...AS
PIO/IDSS..........DCH

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