Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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402 FXUS64 KJAN 250555 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1255 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 757 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Rest of the evening into tonight... An active period is expected the next few hours & into the overnight. Ongoing convection to the north is diving southward into the very unstable environment, with nearly 2500-3000 J/kg ML/MUCAPE & 50-70kts effective bulk shear / 45-70kts 0-6km & 0-8km shear, respectively. Ongoing severe weather approaching the area is moving into mostly untapped air & severe storms remain possible in the near term over the next few hours & through the overnight hours. There remains some low tornado potential, but low-level shear begins to drop off south of Hwy 82 corridor, with only around 20-25kts in the 0-3km layer & less than 10kts below that. Collaborated an earlier severe thunderstorm watch to account for this activity & the watch in effect through 11PM. There will be continued severe threat into the overnight hours, potentially after midnight-3AM. Sfc analysis this evening indicate front across the Plains, with continued ascent from shortwave to the that will propagate into the region through the evening hours. There continues to be run- to-run variability on the convective evolution of the storms to the west in the ArkLaTex, but these should move in overnight & could have multi mode potential, even a developing MCS. Overall thinking in terms of the HWO graphic remains the same. Earlier updates to the add the watch are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 This Evening through Tomorrow: Warm and humid conditions across the area today have afternoon SBCAPE values around 3000-4000 J/kg, but forcing is minimal for new storms to develop within our area through the rest of this evening. An earlier disturbance across northern Mississippi shifting east helped to trigger a few storms just north and just east of our CWA, but the better chances for any storms will have to wait until later this evening and overnight as convection developing along a front in the Plains potentially moves southeastward. Several of the high-res guidance members continue to show this potential, but overall confidence in how the scenario plays out is low. We will maintain the current Slight Risk for severe storms generally in the US Highway 82 corridor during the evening and overnight hours, though some strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out reaching the Interstate 20 corridor late in the night. A Marginal Risk covers those areas. With potential for any kind of MCS to swing through late in the night and early morning Saturday, a Marginal Risk continues into the daytime for northeast Mississippi. If rain doesn`t spread too far south tonight, Saturday`s highs should climb into the lower 90s. /NF/ Sunday through Friday: Mid-level troughing will continue through early Sunday as multiple rounds of short wave energy will swing through the North/Northcentral MS. While Saturday night and throughout the day Sunday are expected to be dry and clear with temperatures expected to warm into the low 90s, a cold front will approach the area from the northwest. As the main low moves into the Great Lakes region the front will be forced down to our area as the warm sector is enhanced. As our CWA will be in the warm sector as any storms that form along and ahead of the approaching front in the northern portions of the CWA will have favorable conditions to turn severe. The primary risks will be damaging wind gusts, and hail up to golf ball size thus a marginal risk has been issued areas along the Hwy-82 corridor and a slight risk has been added for the Bolivar County. This severe potential will be confined to overnight into the early morning hours. Come Monday morning potential for severe and rain chances will have ended. However, Monday afternoon rain chances will return and linger into midday Tuesday as the cold front passes through the area. Following the passage of the front a surface high will begin building into area from the northwest and the trough axis shifts eastward. By Wednesday dry and cool conditions will ensue as northwest flow will limit heating from the Gulf. We can expect ridging aloft to keep conditions quiet through the end of the period. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 An area of TSRA/SHRA wl continue to affect GLH-GWO the next several hours and may come in vcty of GTR 09-10Z. Elsewhere VFR conditions are expected to continue prevailing until after 09Z when MVFR cigs wl be psbl across the srn TAF sites until after 14Z. After 14Z, VFR conditions wl prevail areawide through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 72 92 71 91 / 0 0 20 30 Meridian 72 93 71 93 / 0 0 10 30 Vicksburg 72 92 72 93 / 0 0 20 20 Hattiesburg 72 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 30 Natchez 72 92 73 93 / 0 0 10 20 Greenville 74 92 74 92 / 0 10 40 20 Greenwood 74 92 72 92 / 0 0 40 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/KP/22