Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
584 FXUS64 KMEG 270145 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 845 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER... Issued at 845 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Instability remains quite strong across the Mid-South as of 8 PM with MLCAPE upwards of 3500-4500 J/kg ahead of the line of storms marching across the Mid MS Valley. This instability will provide ample fuel for additional thunderstorm development over northeast AR and southeast MO over the next hour or two. This line of storms will show an eastward motion but the additional storms along the lower end of the front will keep areas farther south toward I-40 in the primary risk area into the early morning hours. We`ve seen some discrete supercells develop over southern IL and western KY, and could yet see this in portions of West TN in the next few hours. This will pose the primary threat for strong, long-track tornadoes. The NQA-generated hodograph indicates strong cyclonic curvature in the lowest 2 km with 0-1 km SRH of 338 m2/s2, which is quite strong and favorable for low-level mesocyclones. Damaging wind is likely within the main line of storms, as is severe hail, but a few tornadoes are possible in this line. Given the 0-3 km shear vector of 270 at 40-45 kts, any portions of the QLCS that becomes roughly N-S oriented would have a potential for mesovortex generation which could enhance the damaging wind/tornado threat, especially given the significant 0-3 km CAPE of 150+ in the warm sector. The severe threat will continue well into the early morning hours. MJ && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 One final round of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected tonight before a period of drier weather is expected for the upcoming work week. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday, mainly in north Mississippi, but much more widespread storms return next weekend. Cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday featuring highs around 80 degrees. Temperatures will trend warmer Thursday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Additional thunderstorms this afternoon look uncertain, but any storms that do develop have a high potential to become severe. Data from A Little Rock special sounding has increased confidence that severe storms capable of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and intense damaging winds are possible this afternoon and continuing into the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded northern portions of west Tennessee, far northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel to a Tornado/Wind driven Moderate Risk(level 4/5) in their Day 1 Convective Outlook. A line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front is expected to traverse the Midsouth tonight. CAMS have been inconsistent in how solid this line will be but timing has been pretty solid. Expect the main threat from strong to severe thunderstorms between 9 PM and 5 AM. Tornadoes, damaging wind, large hail and flooding from heavy rain are all possible. The threat of tornadoes should diminish through the night as hodographs lengthen resulting in less pronounced low level shear. However, as the line interacts with any outflow boundaries from storms earlier today, or additional storms this afternoon, the localized threat for a tornado could become enhanced. A Flood watch remains in effect for the northern half of the Midsouth through 7 AM. Portions of the Missouri bootheel and west Tennessee along the Kentucky State Line where MRMS data indicates 2-4 inches has already fallen will be most vulnerable for additional flooding. Local amounts of rain in excess of 6 inches has likely fallen in this region prompting Flood and Flash flood Warnings. Any additional rain has a high potential to exacerbate ongoing flooding issues. Surface high pressure will build in on Monday behind the overnight line of storms. A few showers may still linger in north Mississippi and along the Tennessee River around Sunrise tomorrow, but Memorial Day looks dry across most of the Midsouth. Highs Tomorrow and Tuesday are expected to be in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees. A low amplitude long wave trough will shift across the Upper and Middle Mississippi River Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday along with a cold front. A shortwave will track from southeast Oklahoma into south Mississippi possibly helping to initiate a few showers and thunderstorms in north Mississippi Wednesday. High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be around 80 degrees. Temperatures will trend warmer Thursday into next weekend with highs back in the mid 80s by Sunday. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to the Midsouth next weekend. 30/Sirmon && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Convection continues to fire up across Missouri. Convection is expected to eventually evolve in a more solid line but not confident on how far to the southwest the line will develop. As a result, only introduced a TEMPO at KMKL. Left VCTS wording at KMEM, KJBR, and KTUP. Also introduced low level wind shear at KMEM between 04-09Z. Outside of the convection, VFR conditions will prevail with SW winds around 10 KTS with higher gusts. Winds will turn around to the west behind the convection. KRM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036- 048. MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115. MS...None. TN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Monday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055- 088>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...KRM