088
FXUS64 KMEG 261441
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
941 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Updated to cancel the remainder of Tornado Watch #314. Additional
showers and sub-severe thunderstorms continue to track across
northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and the northern half of
west Tennessee.

Our severe threat should be minimal for the next several hours
but another round of severe thunderstorms is still expected later
this evening into early Monday morning.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Severe weather is possible tonight with damaging winds, large hail,
a few tornadoes, and heavy rainfall are all possible. The most
likely timing for this event is 9 PM tonight to 5 AM Monday.
After storms exit the region Monday morning, warm and dry
conditions are expected. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible each
day until the next chance of widespread rain later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A shortwave trough is currently over western Arkansas as of 215 AM.
This shortwave will push east in the coming hours and bring a few
strong to severe thunderstorms to the northern tier of counties of
our County Warning Area (CWA). A very moist and unstable air mass
will allow plenty of storm fuel for the trough to initiate
convection very soon. Latest mesoanalysis depicts steep mid-level
lapse rates (7-8 C/km), 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, 40-50 kts of
effective shear, and 150-200 m^2/s^2 of 0-1km of SRH. This type of
atmosphere has all weather hazards on the table. As the shortwave
pushes east, it will be interesting to see where the remnant outflow
boundaries will set up.

The outflow boundaries may result in some afternoon isolated
convection, but confidence is low in afternoon convection. It
appears some weak shortwave ridging resides behind this shortwave
which should keep updrafts to a minimum. The ridging also means
clearing skies allowing ample atmospheric recovery and enhancement to
surface based instability. During this potential down time, the
pressure gradient will begin to tighten as the low and associated
cold front approach. Breezy and gusty conditions can be expected in
northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee.
Winds for this area will increase to around 20 mph with gusts up to
35 mph this afternoon.

Later this evening a line of storms along a cold front will bring
severe weather chances back to the area. Once again all hazards are
on the table. Recent CAM runs show this line breaking into a few
broken line segments. As with a linear storm mode, damaging winds
are the primary threat. MLCAPE values and mid-level lapse rates are
a bit concerning on deterministic soundings with 3000-3500 J/kg and
8-8.5 C/km respectively. The tornado threat really seems to ramp up
after dark as 0-1km SRH values exceed 200m^2/s^2 in our northern
most portion of the CWA, where an Enhanced Risk for severe weather
is in effect. Please have your severe weather plan in place,
multiple ways to receive warnings, and a way for a warning to wake
you up when you are sleeping. Most likely timing for this round
appears to 9 PM tonight until 5 AM tomorrow morning as this line of
storms tracks southeast.

In addition to the severe weather threat, a Flood Watch is in place
until 7 AM Monday morning. The Mid-South has seen several rounds of
rain over the last several days and PWs are looking to hang around
1.5-1.75". Very saturated soils will not be able to absorb quick
rainfall rates or any training storms. West Tennessee, northeast
Arkansas, and the Missouri Bootheel will see the most rain today
around 1-2" after the rounds of rain today. Locally higher amounts
are possible.

After the line of storms pushes out of the Mid-South, Memorial Day
should be pleasant. A few diurnally driven thunderstorms are
possible, but mostly dry conditions are expected. High pressure will
slowly slide in to encompass the region. A ~1020mb high will
encompass the region by Tuesday morning and will slowly be pushed
out by our next chance of widespread rain late week. Diurnally
driven, pop-up thunderstorms are possible each day, but nothing
widespread or severe is expected at this time.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Current area of thunderstorms will continue to move across extreme
northern sections of the Mid-South this morning and should remain
north of all TAF sites. Some additional thunderstorms may develop
later this morning into this afternoon but confidence is too low
to mention in TAFs. Line of thunderstorms is expected to move
through the region from northwest to southeast tonight. MVFR
ceilings are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Most of
this activity should exit the region by the end of the forecast
period. Winds will be mainly from the south at 10 to 15 knots with
higher gusts. Some low level wind shear is possible tonight. Winds
will shift to the southwest behind the thunderstorms overnight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048.

MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ARS