181
FXUS62 KMHX 211442
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1042 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area
dry through Thursday before the next potential frontal system
moves through late week through the weekend and brings a return
to unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 645 AM Tue...Leading edge of stratus and fog shield has
advected westward through much of ENC with the exception of the
Coastal Plain counties roughly along an OAJ to PGV line. Vsbys
have dropped to as low as 1/2 SM to the east of this line. Will
hold off on DFA as not seeing widespread enough 1/4 SM, and
should not as now the sun is rising and should see fog lift and
clear over the next several hours.

Prev disc...As of 3 AM Tue...Bank of stratus advecting wwrd off
the Atlantic is overspreading much of ENC, as area is under
influence of nerly low level flow. Some reductions in vsbys to
less than 1 mi, though anything lower than a half mile will be
patchy, so don`t expect any fog headlines through morning.

Ridging aloft, and high pressure at the surface, will support
another day of dry weather across ENC. Assuming clouds mix out
by the afternoon, highs should reach close to normal inland, but
still remain below normal along the Outer Banks with stratus
holding tough and cont nerly flow. Highs near 80 interior, to
60s OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Main story tonight will be threat for dense
fog, potentially quite widespread. X-over temps are expected to
be reached and exceeded today, with TD`s this afternoon in the
low 60s. Overnight lows tonight will drop below those vals by 3+
degrees all areas, esp interior. These factors, combined with
erly onshore flow today becoming calm tonight and cont skc skies
will set the stage for this fog and very low stratus potential.
Areas near the coast will not escape the fog threat, as winds
over the sounds and waters will be less than 5 kts. Will
highlight the dense fog threat in the HWO for now. Later shifts
may have to consider fog headlines.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure continues to build in from
the north through Thursday. A series of shortwaves will come
through the region Friday through the weekend, with a wetter and
more unsettled end the long term.

Wednesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the
Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through
Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. By Wed and
Thu, temps rise to near 90 and back above climo. In fact, some
areas may flirt with low 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in
the 60s.

Friday through Monday...High pressure shifts offshore to our
west and more active pattern kicks in with multiple shortwaves
impacting the region. Thundershowers possible with each of
these waves with a warm/humid airmass in place, thanks to the
high offshore. Rain chances ahead of the shortwave and frontal
system early Friday have trended a bit drier, so kept PoPs
generally at Schc, with highest values the further north you go.
After the front passes through, a series of shortwaves impact
ENC, one on Friday night through Saturday, and another Monday
into Monday night. Both of these shortwaves carry Chc PoPs with
them. Followed closer to climo, and kept highest thunder chances
in the afternoon and evening periods. At this point severe
weather threat appears to be low through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Today/...
As of 645 AM Tue...Periods of IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected
through this morning with reduced visibility from low stratus
development. The low stratus over the coastal counties cont to
advect westward, and will impact KEWN first, and then the
remaining TAF sites by 10Z. By mid morning, lower ceilings will
push back to the east and cloud cover will diminish across the
coastal plain. Late tonight, a return to IFR looks likely, and
in fact a signal for dense fog and or LIFR/VLIFR cond is
apparent. Will have to watch for later updates and inclusions of
dense fog to the forecast for the Tue night/Wed morning period.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions are expected early
through mid week. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
Friday onwards could result in lower vis and ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 1030 AM Tuesday...

- Dense fog to gradually erode over the next 1-2 hours

Webcams along the coast reveal areas of dense fog and 1NM, or
less, visibilities continue across portions of the northern
waters. Because of this, I extended the Marine Dense Fog
Advisory out through 11am. We`ll continue to monitor trends to
see if further extensions in time are needed. However, based on
recent trends on satellite, I expect improving conditions over
the next 1-2 hours.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Dense marine fog remains a possibility
through this morning, and marine DFA is in effect for the
northern half to account for this. High pressure will shift over
Eastern NC today. This will allow winds and seas to lay down,
supporting improving marine conditions by mid morning. Fog and
low stratus (<100 ft) are a possibility once again later tonight
and into Wed morning, and am fcsting vsbys less than 1 SM once
again. Another marine DFA may eventually be needed for tonight.
Winds will be very light (<5 kt all sounds, rivers and coastal
waters) late tonight as high pres will be directly overhead, and
thus enhance the fog threat.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure will remain in control
through Thursday morning, resulting in good boating conditions.
As the high moves offshore through the day Thursday, SW winds
pick up, gusting near 20 kts Thursday afternoon/evening. Winds
come back down a tad Thursday night, but multiple chances of
showers and thunderstorms exist Friday through the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131-135-
     150-152-154-230-231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...RM/TL/RJ