588
FXUS66 KOTX 130951
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 AM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be warm with light winds. A cold front is expected to
bring more breezy conditions Friday and Saturday. The weekend and
early next week will be cool with the chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday Night: Satellite imagery early this morning
showed a closed low off the central BC coast with southwest flow
over the region. The southwest flow ahead of the low will promote
warmer temperatures today, and likely the warmest day of the 7 day
forecast with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The region will
also get a break from the wind. For tonight a weak mid level wave
tracks across the region ahead of a cold front. For most of the
region it will be just a band of passing mid level clouds, with a
chance of virga (precipitation that evaporates before reaching the
ground). Although from the Blue Mountains into the Central
Panhandle Mountains the moisture combines with elevated
instability with MU CAPE up to 200 J/KG with a few models
generating some light precipitation. Thus have added some
sprinkles to the forecast.

The cooler and drier air then begins to spill in Friday morning
as a mid level dry slot tracks through. Winds will be persistently
breezy to locally windy through the day with southwest winds
sustained 15-25 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph. Despite the cooling
trend, the dry air will allow relative humidity to drop to 16-25%
for most of the lower elevations that may lead to quick fire
spread with any new fires in dry grass. Currently, SPC has the
Columbia Basin in elevated fire weather conditions on Friday. The
good news is that the HDW (Hot, Dry, Windy) index doesn`t look as
high as what occurred on Tuesday.

Friday Night as the upper low continues its march towards the
area, 850mb temperatures continue to cool, with snow levels in the
Cascades dropping to 5000-5500 feet overnight. This could mean
some light accumulations over SR20 at Washington Pass. Given time
of year any snow that will likely have a hard time sticking to
the roads. JW

Saturday through Wednesday: Expect a pattern shift over the
weekend into early next week as low pressure drops down from
British Columbia. Gusty winds are expected Saturday, with cooler
temps and chances for showers also arriving this weekend. Wind
speeds of 15-30 mph, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are currently
forecast for Saturday, especially across the Cascade gaps into the
Waterville Plateau and Columbia Basin. This could certainly lead
to some elevated fire weather concerns, though the cooler temps
should keep RH values from getting too terribly low. The best
chances for precip look to be across the Cascades, northern WA
mountains, and northern Idaho from late Saturday into early next
week. After our period of above normal temps, daytime readings are
forecast to drop below normal for Saturday through at least
Monday. Some patchy frost possible Sunday morning across areas
that are typically susceptable. /KD

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Some passing mid and high
clouds are expected through 12z Friday. Winds will be much lighter
today compared to the past several days. The Pioneer Wildfire
near Lake Chelan will continue to produce smoke but shouldn`t
restrict visibility at any airports.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  54  73  50  64  40 /   0   0   0   0  40  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  73  47  61  39 /   0  10   0   0  50  10
Pullman        78  52  68  46  60  38 /   0  10   0   0  30  10
Lewiston       87  58  80  53  70  46 /   0  10   0   0  20   0
Colville       78  47  75  43  62  34 /   0   0   0   0  80  20
Sandpoint      77  51  72  45  59  38 /   0  10   0   0  80  30
Kellogg        78  56  68  49  57  41 /   0  10  10   0  60  20
Moses Lake     84  51  77  49  69  41 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Wenatchee      81  53  73  51  66  44 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Omak           83  50  78  47  68  42 /   0   0   0   0  40   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$