792
FXUS63 KPAH 051913
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
213 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Any isolated to scattered showers and storms will end this
  evening as a frontal boundary passes on through the area.

- High temperatures from the middle to upper 80s Thursday will
  cool to the to the upper 70s and lower 80s for the weekend
  into early next week.

- Weak upper level disturbances will bring small chances of
  showers and storms to the region this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A cold front will push on through our region this evening.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible
through 02z-04z, then the front will move far enough to
southeast to end our chances. Clouds will decrease this evening
and overnight, with clear to partly cloudy skies expected by
daybreak across the entire PAH forecast area.

On Thursday, temperatures will be near to a little above normal
in the middle to upper 80s, but northwest surface winds will be
bringing in drier air. Dew points in the lower to middle 60s in
the morning will drop into the 50s by late afternoon. Gradually
cooler conditions will follow, with highs Friday in the lower
to middle 80s, and readings over the weekend in the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees, which is 3 to 6 degrees below normal. Dew
points will remain in the 50s Friday, gradually moderating back
up into the upper 50s to middle 60s over the weekend.

Over the weekend, an upper low sitting over the Great Lakes
region will put the PAH fa in northwest flow. Models show a few
weak disturbances in the flow bringing showers and storms to
our region Saturday through Sunday evening. Models are in pretty
decent agreement in good chances during the day Saturday,
especially across the western half of our area, then gradually
focusing the better chances across southern portions of our
region Saturday night into Sunday. For Saturday, the NBM
produces likely PoPs across portions of southeast Missouri,
tapering off to slight chances over southwest Indiana. Chances
will be lower overall by Sunday as the upper low moves farther
east. Timing will continue to be fine tuned.

Some models show the aforementioned upper low bringing a trof
through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys late
Sunday night into Monday, producing a smattering of QPF. The NBM
at this point keeps our region dry as surface high pressure
builds over the Central Plains. The surface high will move east
through mid week, keeping us dry through Wednesday morning.
There are some hints of convection chances returning by
Wednesday afternoon with indications of an upper level
disturbance, but time will tell. We should see a mild warming
trend early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Isolated/scattered shra/tsra possible across the area this
afternoon with passage of a weak cold front, but chances too
low to include in TAFs at this time. MVFR cigs expected at all
TAF sites through 20-22z with occasional breaks to VFR. Low VFR
cigs will becoming predominant after 22z, with clouds scattering
out by mid to late evening. South to southwest winds at 6-12kts
with occasional gusts to near 20 kts will become west late this
afternoon into early evening,becoming light overnight. No vsby
restrictions unless affected by isolated convection.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST