Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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359 FXUS63 KPAH 172354 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 654 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog may form later tonight. Locally dense fog cannot be ruled out. - A few showers and thunderstorms may affect the region Saturday, especially west Kentucky. Sunday and Monday should be mainly dry. - Active weather pattern sets up next week, with strong thunderstorms possible during the mid week period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 An active weather pattern will remain established across the CONUS. A weak upper low over the southern Plains will drift slowly east, northeast tonight through Saturday. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity should be mainly diurnally driven. For the rest of this afternoon, best chances should be over parts of SEMO with slight chances elsewhere. Saturday, the best chance will be across west KY where better moisture will be established. Forecast soundings suggest fog formation is likely tonight for some of the area. Conditions seems favorable as SFC-1km flow will be quite weak, with temperatures headed below crossover values, with weak high pressure overhead and wet ground conditions due to rainfall. This will be something for the evening and overnight shift to monitor. We do mention it in the forecast. Sunday and Monday should be mainly dry with ridging in place. The pattern then becomes active beginning Tuesday and continuing for the rest of next week. There are some notable differences beyond Wednesday in terms of precip chances. The GFS/GEFS tends drier beginning Thursday while the non U.S. models and their ensemble means suggest it will remain unsettled with shower and thunderstorm chances. The NBM accounts for those chances and for now we will let them run, especially since WPC`s long range PoPs essentially mirror the NBM (suggesting there`s not enough confidence to try and improve on the going PoP values). Temperatures will be mostly above average. It will be noticeably warmer and humid Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90, and dew points mostly in the mid 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Complicated forecast tonight, as an upper trough/low moves slowly overhead. Winds will become calm this evening and where skies clear, IFR or lower conditions in fog and/or low ceilings are likely. However, the presence of the upper trough means there could be substantial mid-level clouds to prevent such development. Went with dense fog at KCGI and KMVN, and then factored in more mid cloud farther south and east. Conditions will improve to VFR by midday, but 4-5kft ceilings are likely over much of the area through the afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CN AVIATION...DRS