977
FXUS65 KPUB 180935
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
335 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some scattered showers and storms today, forming over the
  mountains and moving east this afternoon.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions expected on Sunday and
  Monday, with a low chance for isolated thunderstorms across
  the eastern plains both days.

- Higher chances for showers and thunderstorms across portions
  of the higher terrain and plains Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 332 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Generally zonal flow aloft today with east-southeasterly flow
settling in across the eastern plains. High temperatures will be
comparable to yesterday if a few degrees cooler in places, with
low- mid 80s over the plains and mid-70s across the valleys and
higher terrain. Showers and storms are expected to initiate
over the mountains shortly after midday today, first over the
mountain peaks before steering flow pushes activity to the east.
Models vary on the amount of convection that is able to sustain
on the plains this afternoon, but some scattered showers are
expected along and east of I-25, mostly north of highway 50.
There will be plenty of directional shear given the upper-level
flow pattern, but modest CAPE with some easterly upslope. Models
have been showing around 300- 500 J/kg at most. In general,
some thunder from high-based thunderstorms will be possible
along with gusty outflow and some small hail, especially over
and near the Palmer Divide. Otherwise, precipitation will wane
later this evening and lead to warm overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 332 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Upper trough will be situated across the western CONUS at the
start of next week, with southwesterly flow in place across the
region. This will support additional warming for both Sunday and
Monday, along with windier conditions. Still don`t anticipate
any overly strong winds or gusts during this time, however,
these winds combined with the warmth and anticipated drier
conditions will support widespread critical fire weather
conditions on both days. As previously noted, fuels across most
of southern Colorado are not critical at this time, and don`t
anticipate any fire weather headlines at this time. While precip
chances don`t look overly high on both days, will need to
closely monitor the potential for isolated thunderstorm
development across the plains.

First, on Sunday, higher instability and moisture will linger
across the plains early in the day. With daytime mixing, will
see much drier air push east across the plains, focusing the
higher moisture and instability just to the east in Kansas. That
being said, there is a small window for isolated thunderstorm
development along the moisture discontinuity, especially as a
shortwave trough looks to push across the region. While chances
are low and the window for development is small, can`t
completely rule it out, especially as HREF paintballs showing
several members developing storms east of a Kim to Lamar line.
If a storm were to develop, there is also a low chance for it to
be severe given the extent of the instability and shear. For
Monday, confidence for thunderstorm development across the
plains is lower, but guidance is indicating this
moisture/instability surging back into Colorado. It`s quite
possible we see another small window for possible strong to
severe storm development across the eastern plains Monday
afternoon into early evening. Deepening surface low ahead of
additional shortwave energy could easily support this
development, especially with a weak to moderately unstable air
mass in place.

Still monitoring placement and trends with a front trying to
dive south across the plains Monday night. Even if it were to
move into a portion of the area during this time, most guidance
keeping precip development to the north. By Tuesday, will see
the previously mentioned trough dig across the region and move
into the Colorado area by later in the day. At this point, the
risk for critical fire weather conditions looks low, but could
easily see another day of windier and drier conditions across
portions of southern Colorado. What is appearing more likely is
returning forcing and focus for showers and thunderstorms across
the central mountains east into the plains, along and north of
Highway 50. Low confidence on the details, but at this point,
snow and impacts across the mountains look to be low.
Additionally, instability looks to be limited at this time,
which should keep the risk of severe weather low. With the
departure of this system, a return to westerly flow with warm
and dry weather looks to be in store to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 332 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Some scattered storms will be possible near KCOS and KPUB
this afternoon after about 20Z and lasting into this evening.
Confidence is too low at this time to include precipitation at
either site, but showers will be passing through the vicinity.
At this time, KCOS will see a higher chance of nearby showers
and thunderstorms than KPUB. Nearby showers will lower cloud
ceilings and could send out some gusty outflow. If a shower does
manage to move over a terminal, gusty winds and rain showers
would be the main concerns.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO